Trader consensus on Polymarket splits nearly evenly between an unusually cool high of 45°F or below (50%) and a mild 64°F or higher (50%), reflecting high uncertainty in the persistence of San Francisco's coastal marine layer amid variable spring onshore flow. NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles currently cluster downtown highs around 59–62°F for April 14, but model divergences on stratus burn-off timing and low-level cool air advection create the bimodal sentiment: prolonged fog under a strong inversion could cap peaks near record-low April highs (historically as low as 49°F), while quicker clearing and subtle ridge amplification offshore would push into climatological norms near 63°F. Following recent showers through April 12, watch NWS Bay Area updates for 00Z/12Z runs resolving inversion depth.