Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 39.5% implied probability to a 58-59°F high temperature in San Francisco on April 12, driven by National Weather Service point forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model consensus projecting persistent marine layer stratus under weak upper-level ridging, capping daytime heating. Recent observations at San Francisco International Airport show highs stuck in the mid-to-upper 50s°F over the past 48 hours—down from early April record warmth—due to strengthening onshore flow advecting cool, moist Pacific air. Climatological April 12 average is 63°F, but springtime fog decks routinely suppress peaks by 4-6°F; low confidence in full burn-off amid 20% shower odds adds uncertainty. Watch the 4 PM NWS forecast discussion and 12z model suite for potential shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 12?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 12?
58-59°F 40%
60-61°F 22%
56-57°F 21%
62-63°F 12%
$10,402 Vol.
$10,402 Vol.
12 abr 2026
47°F or below
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
10%
56-57°F
21%
58-59°F
40%
60-61°F
22%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
1%
58-59°F 40%
60-61°F 22%
56-57°F 21%
62-63°F 12%
$10,402 Vol.
$10,402 Vol.
12 abr 2026
47°F or below
$1,270 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$2,453 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$811 Vol.
<1%
52-53°F
$984 Vol.
1%
54-55°F
$1,024 Vol.
10%
56-57°F
$541 Vol.
21%
58-59°F
$598 Vol.
40%
60-61°F
$800 Vol.
22%
62-63°F
$660 Vol.
12%
64-65°F
$554 Vol.
2%
66°F or higher
$748 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 39.5% implied probability to a 58-59°F high temperature in San Francisco on April 12, driven by National Weather Service point forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model consensus projecting persistent marine layer stratus under weak upper-level ridging, capping daytime heating. Recent observations at San Francisco International Airport show highs stuck in the mid-to-upper 50s°F over the past 48 hours—down from early April record warmth—due to strengthening onshore flow advecting cool, moist Pacific air. Climatological April 12 average is 63°F, but springtime fog decks routinely suppress peaks by 4-6°F; low confidence in full burn-off amid 20% shower odds adds uncertainty. Watch the 4 PM NWS forecast discussion and 12z model suite for potential shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 8, 2026, 12:34 AM ET
Volumen
$10,402Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:34 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 39.5% implied probability to a 58-59°F high temperature in San Francisco on April 12, driven by National Weather Service point forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model consensus projecting persistent marine layer stratus under weak upper-level ridging, capping daytime heating. Recent observations at San Francisco International Airport show highs stuck in the mid-to-upper 50s°F over the past 48 hours—down from early April record warmth—due to strengthening onshore flow advecting cool, moist Pacific air. Climatological April 12 average is 63°F, but springtime fog decks routinely suppress peaks by 4-6°F; low confidence in full burn-off amid 20% shower odds adds uncertainty. Watch the 4 PM NWS forecast discussion and 12z model suite for potential shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,402Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 8, 2026, 12:34 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 39.5% implied probability to a 58-59°F high temperature in San Francisco on April 12, driven by National Weather Service point forecasts and GFS/ECMWF model consensus projecting persistent marine layer stratus under weak upper-level ridging, capping daytime heating. Recent observations at San Francisco International Airport show highs stuck in the mid-to-upper 50s°F over the past 48 hours—down from early April record warmth—due to strengthening onshore flow advecting cool, moist Pacific air. Climatological April 12 average is 63°F, but springtime fog decks routinely suppress peaks by 4-6°F; low confidence in full burn-off amid 20% shower odds adds uncertainty. Watch the 4 PM NWS forecast discussion and 12z model suite for potential shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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