Missouri's 7th Congressional District, with its R+21 partisan lean anchored by Springfield in southwest Missouri, strongly favors Republicans, reflected in trader consensus pricing the GOP at 91.5% to retain the seat held by incumbent Eric Burlison. Burlison, who won re-election decisively in 2024, faces a Republican primary on August 4 against challengers including John Casey amid recent bill introductions like the Davis-Bacon Repeal Act, but no polls indicate vulnerability. Democrats, with Missi Hesketh in their primary, face steep historical barriers in this safe seat. Odds could shift via a primary upset, major Burlison scandal, redistricting ballot measure passage altering maps, or a national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in rural strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-07 House Election Winner
MO-07 House Election Winner
$14,375 Vol.
$14,375 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
7%
$14,375 Vol.
$14,375 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$12,206 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$2,169 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 7th Congressional District, with its R+21 partisan lean anchored by Springfield in southwest Missouri, strongly favors Republicans, reflected in trader consensus pricing the GOP at 91.5% to retain the seat held by incumbent Eric Burlison. Burlison, who won re-election decisively in 2024, faces a Republican primary on August 4 against challengers including John Casey amid recent bill introductions like the Davis-Bacon Repeal Act, but no polls indicate vulnerability. Democrats, with Missi Hesketh in their primary, face steep historical barriers in this safe seat. Odds could shift via a primary upset, major Burlison scandal, redistricting ballot measure passage altering maps, or a national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in rural strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$14,375End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 7th Congressional District, with its R+21 partisan lean anchored by Springfield in southwest Missouri, strongly favors Republicans, reflected in trader consensus pricing the GOP at 91.5% to retain the seat held by incumbent Eric Burlison. Burlison, who won re-election decisively in 2024, faces a Republican primary on August 4 against challengers including John Casey amid recent bill introductions like the Davis-Bacon Repeal Act, but no polls indicate vulnerability. Democrats, with Missi Hesketh in their primary, face steep historical barriers in this safe seat. Odds could shift via a primary upset, major Burlison scandal, redistricting ballot measure passage altering maps, or a national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in rural strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,375End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 7th Congressional District, with its R+21 partisan lean anchored by Springfield in southwest Missouri, strongly favors Republicans, reflected in trader consensus pricing the GOP at 91.5% to retain the seat held by incumbent Eric Burlison. Burlison, who won re-election decisively in 2024, faces a Republican primary on August 4 against challengers including John Casey amid recent bill introductions like the Davis-Bacon Repeal Act, but no polls indicate vulnerability. Democrats, with Missi Hesketh in their primary, face steep historical barriers in this safe seat. Odds could shift via a primary upset, major Burlison scandal, redistricting ballot measure passage altering maps, or a national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in rural strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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