Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities peaking at 22.5% for 29°C amid southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea, pushing recent highs near 31°C on April 16. However, increasing cloud cover and afternoon shower risks—per China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance—could cap peaks at 27-28°C by reducing solar insolation, while drier scenarios allow 29°C. April 2026 has averaged 3.5°C above normal (24.9°C mean), with highs of 29.6°C earlier this month. Key differentiators include convective timing and boundary layer mixing; new GFS/ECMWF runs overnight and morning soundings will refine odds before resolution on official station data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 17?
29°C 23%
26°C or below 20%
27°C 20%
28°C 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
26°C or below
17%
27°C
20%
28°C
20%
29°C
23%
30°C
10%
31°C
10%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 23%
26°C or below 20%
27°C 20%
28°C 20%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
26°C or below
$418 Vol.
17%
27°C
$171 Vol.
20%
28°C
$202 Vol.
20%
29°C
$176 Vol.
23%
30°C
$314 Vol.
10%
31°C
$384 Vol.
10%
32°C
$796 Vol.
2%
33°C
$584 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,917 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,650 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,330 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities peaking at 22.5% for 29°C amid southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea, pushing recent highs near 31°C on April 16. However, increasing cloud cover and afternoon shower risks—per China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance—could cap peaks at 27-28°C by reducing solar insolation, while drier scenarios allow 29°C. April 2026 has averaged 3.5°C above normal (24.9°C mean), with highs of 29.6°C earlier this month. Key differentiators include convective timing and boundary layer mixing; new GFS/ECMWF runs overnight and morning soundings will refine odds before resolution on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$7,942Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities peaking at 22.5% for 29°C amid southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea, pushing recent highs near 31°C on April 16. However, increasing cloud cover and afternoon shower risks—per China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance—could cap peaks at 27-28°C by reducing solar insolation, while drier scenarios allow 29°C. April 2026 has averaged 3.5°C above normal (24.9°C mean), with highs of 29.6°C earlier this month. Key differentiators include convective timing and boundary layer mixing; new GFS/ECMWF runs overnight and morning soundings will refine odds before resolution on official station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,942Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities peaking at 22.5% for 29°C amid southerly winds advecting warm, moist air from the South China Sea, pushing recent highs near 31°C on April 16. However, increasing cloud cover and afternoon shower risks—per China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF guidance—could cap peaks at 27-28°C by reducing solar insolation, while drier scenarios allow 29°C. April 2026 has averaged 3.5°C above normal (24.9°C mean), with highs of 29.6°C earlier this month. Key differentiators include convective timing and boundary layer mixing; new GFS/ECMWF runs overnight and morning soundings will refine odds before resolution on official station data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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