Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities clustered around 32–34°C due to NiMet's seasonal prediction of above-average warmth amid an early rainy season transition. Recent observational data shows April highs averaging 29–32°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate sea breezes from the Atlantic moderating peaks, aligning with the 32.1°C climatological April norm from long-term records. Differentiating factors include potential scattered convection reducing solar insolation for 32°C outcomes versus clearer intervals and urban heat island effects pushing toward 34°C; global models like ECMWF show slight divergence on cloud cover and wind shear. New NiMet bulletins or satellite updates expected within 24 hours could refine this before resolution based on official airport measurements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Lagos on April 17?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 17?
33°C 26%
34°C 24%
32°C 22%
35°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
10%
32°C
22%
33°C
33%
34°C
24%
35°C
18%
36°C
10%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 26%
34°C 24%
32°C 22%
35°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
17 avr. 2026
27°C or below
$1,523 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,135 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,591 Vol.
1%
30°C
$357 Vol.
4%
31°C
$366 Vol.
10%
32°C
$39 Vol.
22%
33°C
$67 Vol.
33%
34°C
$76 Vol.
24%
35°C
$59 Vol.
18%
36°C
$567 Vol.
10%
37°C or higher
$2,003 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities clustered around 32–34°C due to NiMet's seasonal prediction of above-average warmth amid an early rainy season transition. Recent observational data shows April highs averaging 29–32°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate sea breezes from the Atlantic moderating peaks, aligning with the 32.1°C climatological April norm from long-term records. Differentiating factors include potential scattered convection reducing solar insolation for 32°C outcomes versus clearer intervals and urban heat island effects pushing toward 34°C; global models like ECMWF show slight divergence on cloud cover and wind shear. New NiMet bulletins or satellite updates expected within 24 hours could refine this before resolution based on official airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 15, 2026, 12:21 AM ET
Volume
$7,773Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:21 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities clustered around 32–34°C due to NiMet's seasonal prediction of above-average warmth amid an early rainy season transition. Recent observational data shows April highs averaging 29–32°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate sea breezes from the Atlantic moderating peaks, aligning with the 32.1°C climatological April norm from long-term records. Differentiating factors include potential scattered convection reducing solar insolation for 32°C outcomes versus clearer intervals and urban heat island effects pushing toward 34°C; global models like ECMWF show slight divergence on cloud cover and wind shear. New NiMet bulletins or satellite updates expected within 24 hours could refine this before resolution based on official airport measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,773Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:21 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-term forecast models for Lagos's highest temperature on April 17, with implied probabilities clustered around 32–34°C due to NiMet's seasonal prediction of above-average warmth amid an early rainy season transition. Recent observational data shows April highs averaging 29–32°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate sea breezes from the Atlantic moderating peaks, aligning with the 32.1°C climatological April norm from long-term records. Differentiating factors include potential scattered convection reducing solar insolation for 32°C outcomes versus clearer intervals and urban heat island effects pushing toward 34°C; global models like ECMWF show slight divergence on cloud cover and wind shear. New NiMet bulletins or satellite updates expected within 24 hours could refine this before resolution based on official airport measurements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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