Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward 11–13°C highs for Moscow on April 17, with 12°C leading at 29% implied probability due to mean model outputs clustering there amid a weakening high-pressure ridge over European Russia. Recent 24-hour updates from sources like yr.no pinpoint 13°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds (2 m/s), while overcast persistence or northerly shifts favor 11°C, explaining the close contest with 19.5% and 14.5% odds respectively. Historical mid-April averages hover at 12°C, but current upper-air patterns introduce uncertainty in cloud forcing and daytime heating. New 12z model runs and airport observations today could sharpen this spread before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Moscow on April 17?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 17?
12°C 36%
13°C 28%
11°C 17%
14°C 13%
NOUVEAU
$13,956 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$13,956 Vol.
17 avr. 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
7%
11°C
17%
12°C
36%
13°C
22%
14°C
13%
15°C
3%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
1%
12°C 36%
13°C 28%
11°C 17%
14°C 13%
NOUVEAU
$13,956 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$13,956 Vol.
17 avr. 2026
7°C or below
$1,451 Vol.
1%
8°C
$1,604 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$631 Vol.
2%
10°C
$356 Vol.
7%
11°C
$160 Vol.
17%
12°C
$160 Vol.
36%
13°C
$202 Vol.
22%
14°C
$549 Vol.
13%
15°C
$2,091 Vol.
3%
16°C
$2,790 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$4,001 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward 11–13°C highs for Moscow on April 17, with 12°C leading at 29% implied probability due to mean model outputs clustering there amid a weakening high-pressure ridge over European Russia. Recent 24-hour updates from sources like yr.no pinpoint 13°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds (2 m/s), while overcast persistence or northerly shifts favor 11°C, explaining the close contest with 19.5% and 14.5% odds respectively. Historical mid-April averages hover at 12°C, but current upper-air patterns introduce uncertainty in cloud forcing and daytime heating. New 12z model runs and airport observations today could sharpen this spread before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$13,956Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward 11–13°C highs for Moscow on April 17, with 12°C leading at 29% implied probability due to mean model outputs clustering there amid a weakening high-pressure ridge over European Russia. Recent 24-hour updates from sources like yr.no pinpoint 13°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds (2 m/s), while overcast persistence or northerly shifts favor 11°C, explaining the close contest with 19.5% and 14.5% odds respectively. Historical mid-April averages hover at 12°C, but current upper-air patterns introduce uncertainty in cloud forcing and daytime heating. New 12z model runs and airport observations today could sharpen this spread before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,956Date de fin
17 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 15, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward 11–13°C highs for Moscow on April 17, with 12°C leading at 29% implied probability due to mean model outputs clustering there amid a weakening high-pressure ridge over European Russia. Recent 24-hour updates from sources like yr.no pinpoint 13°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds (2 m/s), while overcast persistence or northerly shifts favor 11°C, explaining the close contest with 19.5% and 14.5% odds respectively. Historical mid-April averages hover at 12°C, but current upper-air patterns introduce uncertainty in cloud forcing and daytime heating. New 12z model runs and airport observations today could sharpen this spread before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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