Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a high near 94–95 °F for Houston on August 7, with modest afternoon sea-breeze convergence and a 20–30 % chance of scattered thunderstorms acting as the main variables that could cap readings in the low 90s. Persistent but weakening upper-level ridging continues to support strong daytime heating and heat-index values above 100 °F, yet recent model runs show slightly cooler boundary-layer moisture and earlier convective initiation than earlier in the week, trimming the upper tail of the distribution. Historical August climatology places the daily normal near 94 °F, so the tight clustering of market-implied odds between the 92–93 °F and 94–95 °F bins reflects uncertainty over whether convection arrives before or after the afternoon temperature peak. Updated short-range guidance tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signal ahead of official verification at Hobby Airport.