Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 17, with 29°C leading at 29.5% implied probability ahead of 30°C at 22.5%, driven by the latest INMET regional forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensembles projecting peaks near 29-30°C amid a dominant high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. Partial cloud cover and light southerly winds may cap daytime heating at 29°C by reducing solar insolation, while urban heat island effects in the city center could nudge it to 30°C or higher; historical April averages hover around 27°C, making this warmer-than-normal outlook notable. Watch for INMET's morning update and afternoon model refreshes, as small shifts in cloud timing hold sway over the razor-thin margins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 17?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 17?
29°C 30%
30°C 23%
28°C 19%
31°C 17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 apr 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
9%
28°C
19%
29°C
30%
30°C
23%
31°C
17%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
29°C 30%
30°C 23%
28°C 19%
31°C 17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 apr 2026
24°C or below
$1,516 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,051 Vol.
1%
26°C
$623 Vol.
3%
27°C
$630 Vol.
9%
28°C
$583 Vol.
19%
29°C
$487 Vol.
30%
30°C
$484 Vol.
23%
31°C
$707 Vol.
17%
32°C
$289 Vol.
5%
33°C
$338 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$762 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 17, with 29°C leading at 29.5% implied probability ahead of 30°C at 22.5%, driven by the latest INMET regional forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensembles projecting peaks near 29-30°C amid a dominant high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. Partial cloud cover and light southerly winds may cap daytime heating at 29°C by reducing solar insolation, while urban heat island effects in the city center could nudge it to 30°C or higher; historical April averages hover around 27°C, making this warmer-than-normal outlook notable. Watch for INMET's morning update and afternoon model refreshes, as small shifts in cloud timing hold sway over the razor-thin margins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$7,465Data di fine
17 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 17, with 29°C leading at 29.5% implied probability ahead of 30°C at 22.5%, driven by the latest INMET regional forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensembles projecting peaks near 29-30°C amid a dominant high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. Partial cloud cover and light southerly winds may cap daytime heating at 29°C by reducing solar insolation, while urban heat island effects in the city center could nudge it to 30°C or higher; historical April averages hover around 27°C, making this warmer-than-normal outlook notable. Watch for INMET's morning update and afternoon model refreshes, as small shifts in cloud timing hold sway over the razor-thin margins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,465Data di fine
17 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for São Paulo's highest temperature on April 17, with 29°C leading at 29.5% implied probability ahead of 30°C at 22.5%, driven by the latest INMET regional forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensembles projecting peaks near 29-30°C amid a dominant high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. Partial cloud cover and light southerly winds may cap daytime heating at 29°C by reducing solar insolation, while urban heat island effects in the city center could nudge it to 30°C or higher; historical April averages hover around 27°C, making this warmer-than-normal outlook notable. Watch for INMET's morning update and afternoon model refreshes, as small shifts in cloud timing hold sway over the razor-thin margins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti