Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project Chicago's highest temperature on April 16 in the upper 60s to mid-70s°F at O'Hare International Airport, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 76-77°F leading at 29% implied probability, closely trailed by 68-69°F (25.5%) and 70-71°F (22%). This positioning stems from a recent warm surge peaking at 81°F on April 12—well above the 59.2°F normal—and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring 2026 outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest under ENSO-neutral conditions. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing depth, southwest warm air advection strength, and afternoon cloud cover variability from potential weak disturbances, introducing 8-10°F forecast uncertainty. Watch for 12z GFS/ECMWF updates and NWS Chicago forecast discussion later today.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chicago on April 16?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 16?
72-73°F 22%
68-69°F 15%
70-71°F 14%
74-75°F 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/16
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
13%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
14%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
2%
80°F or higher
2%
72-73°F 22%
68-69°F 15%
70-71°F 14%
74-75°F 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/16
61°F or below
$1,268 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$522 Vol.
4%
64-65°F
$104 Vol.
7%
66-67°F
$53 Vol.
13%
68-69°F
$102 Vol.
15%
70-71°F
$133 Vol.
14%
72-73°F
$193 Vol.
22%
74-75°F
$149 Vol.
14%
76-77°F
$217 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$181 Vol.
2%
80°F or higher
$323 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project Chicago's highest temperature on April 16 in the upper 60s to mid-70s°F at O'Hare International Airport, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 76-77°F leading at 29% implied probability, closely trailed by 68-69°F (25.5%) and 70-71°F (22%). This positioning stems from a recent warm surge peaking at 81°F on April 12—well above the 59.2°F normal—and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring 2026 outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest under ENSO-neutral conditions. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing depth, southwest warm air advection strength, and afternoon cloud cover variability from potential weak disturbances, introducing 8-10°F forecast uncertainty. Watch for 12z GFS/ECMWF updates and NWS Chicago forecast discussion later today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
音量
$3,158終了日
2026/04/16マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project Chicago's highest temperature on April 16 in the upper 60s to mid-70s°F at O'Hare International Airport, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 76-77°F leading at 29% implied probability, closely trailed by 68-69°F (25.5%) and 70-71°F (22%). This positioning stems from a recent warm surge peaking at 81°F on April 12—well above the 59.2°F normal—and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring 2026 outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest under ENSO-neutral conditions. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing depth, southwest warm air advection strength, and afternoon cloud cover variability from potential weak disturbances, introducing 8-10°F forecast uncertainty. Watch for 12z GFS/ECMWF updates and NWS Chicago forecast discussion later today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$3,158終了日
2026/04/16マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 6:05 PM ETLatest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models project Chicago's highest temperature on April 16 in the upper 60s to mid-70s°F at O'Hare International Airport, mirroring the tight trader consensus with 76-77°F leading at 29% implied probability, closely trailed by 68-69°F (25.5%) and 70-71°F (22%). This positioning stems from a recent warm surge peaking at 81°F on April 12—well above the 59.2°F normal—and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center spring 2026 outlook favoring above-normal temperatures across the Midwest under ENSO-neutral conditions. Key differentiators include boundary layer mixing depth, southwest warm air advection strength, and afternoon cloud cover variability from potential weak disturbances, introducing 8-10°F forecast uncertainty. Watch for 12z GFS/ECMWF updates and NWS Chicago forecast discussion later today.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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