Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C or higher at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15, reflecting strong alignment across ECMWF and GFS forecast models projecting peaks of 15-18°C under a building high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild continental air. Recent IMGW weekly outlook (updated April 13) describes typical spring conditions with central Poland maximums around 12-14°C amid cloudy skies and possible rain, but international models emphasize sunnier breaks boosting temps above the mid-April climatological average of 14°C. Yesterday's warm trend continuation supports this positioning, though lingering cloud cover introduces uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs and early observations for shifts before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 15?
15°C or higher 88%
14°C 11.5%
13°C 2.3%
12°C <1%
新規
$85,820 Vol.
新規
$85,820 Vol.
2026/04/15
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
11%
15°C or higher
88%
15°C or higher 88%
14°C 11.5%
13°C 2.3%
12°C <1%
新規
$85,820 Vol.
新規
$85,820 Vol.
2026/04/15
5°C or below
$1,423 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$3,687 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$563 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$2,370 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$7,070 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$10,187 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$10,506 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$9,115 Vol.
1%
13°C
$8,642 Vol.
2%
14°C
$8,669 Vol.
11%
15°C or higher
$23,664 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C or higher at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15, reflecting strong alignment across ECMWF and GFS forecast models projecting peaks of 15-18°C under a building high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild continental air. Recent IMGW weekly outlook (updated April 13) describes typical spring conditions with central Poland maximums around 12-14°C amid cloudy skies and possible rain, but international models emphasize sunnier breaks boosting temps above the mid-April climatological average of 14°C. Yesterday's warm trend continuation supports this positioning, though lingering cloud cover introduces uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs and early observations for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
音量
$85,820終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C or higher at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15, reflecting strong alignment across ECMWF and GFS forecast models projecting peaks of 15-18°C under a building high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild continental air. Recent IMGW weekly outlook (updated April 13) describes typical spring conditions with central Poland maximums around 12-14°C amid cloudy skies and possible rain, but international models emphasize sunnier breaks boosting temps above the mid-April climatological average of 14°C. Yesterday's warm trend continuation supports this positioning, though lingering cloud cover introduces uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs and early observations for shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$85,820終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 87.5% implied probability to a highest temperature of 15°C or higher at Warsaw Chopin Airport on April 15, reflecting strong alignment across ECMWF and GFS forecast models projecting peaks of 15-18°C under a building high-pressure ridge and southerly winds advecting mild continental air. Recent IMGW weekly outlook (updated April 13) describes typical spring conditions with central Poland maximums around 12-14°C amid cloudy skies and possible rain, but international models emphasize sunnier breaks boosting temps above the mid-April climatological average of 14°C. Yesterday's warm trend continuation supports this positioning, though lingering cloud cover introduces uncertainty; watch 00Z model runs and early observations for shifts before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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