The New Jersey 8th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+15 Partisan Voter Index and roughly 52% Democratic registration, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Robert Menendez Jr. secured the party’s nomination in the June 2 primary with nearly 69% of the vote, facing no Republican on the November general-election ballot. This structural advantage, combined with the district’s urban composition across Hudson, Essex, and Union counties, has produced the wide implied probability gap. Limited scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late independent surge drawing significant unaffiliated support or an unforeseen vacancy altering candidate dynamics before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,918 Vol.
$13,918 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$13,918 Vol.
$13,918 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,847 Vol.
95%
共和党
$5,071 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The New Jersey 8th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+15 Partisan Voter Index and roughly 52% Democratic registration, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Robert Menendez Jr. secured the party’s nomination in the June 2 primary with nearly 69% of the vote, facing no Republican on the November general-election ballot. This structural advantage, combined with the district’s urban composition across Hudson, Essex, and Union counties, has produced the wide implied probability gap. Limited scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late independent surge drawing significant unaffiliated support or an unforeseen vacancy altering candidate dynamics before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$13,918終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The New Jersey 8th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+15 Partisan Voter Index and roughly 52% Democratic registration, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Robert Menendez Jr. secured the party’s nomination in the June 2 primary with nearly 69% of the vote, facing no Republican on the November general-election ballot. This structural advantage, combined with the district’s urban composition across Hudson, Essex, and Union counties, has produced the wide implied probability gap. Limited scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late independent surge drawing significant unaffiliated support or an unforeseen vacancy altering candidate dynamics before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$13,918終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The New Jersey 8th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+15 Partisan Voter Index and roughly 52% Democratic registration, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Robert Menendez Jr. secured the party’s nomination in the June 2 primary with nearly 69% of the vote, facing no Republican on the November general-election ballot. This structural advantage, combined with the district’s urban composition across Hudson, Essex, and Union counties, has produced the wide implied probability gap. Limited scenarios that could narrow the margin include a late independent surge drawing significant unaffiliated support or an unforeseen vacancy altering candidate dynamics before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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