Incumbent Democrat Rob Menendez secured a decisive victory in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Jersey's 8th congressional district, defeating challenger Mussab Ali by roughly 39 points and advancing to the November general election. The district's D+15 partisan voter index, combined with voter registration that favors Democrats by a more than 4-to-1 margin over Republicans, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Republican nominee Anthony Valdes faces structural headwinds in this safely Democratic seat rated Solid D by multiple forecasters. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican midterm wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators show limited pathways for an upset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$12,768 Vol.
$12,768 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$12,768 Vol.
$12,768 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$7,713 Vol.
94%
共和党
$5,055 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rob Menendez secured a decisive victory in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Jersey's 8th congressional district, defeating challenger Mussab Ali by roughly 39 points and advancing to the November general election. The district's D+15 partisan voter index, combined with voter registration that favors Democrats by a more than 4-to-1 margin over Republicans, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Republican nominee Anthony Valdes faces structural headwinds in this safely Democratic seat rated Solid D by multiple forecasters. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican midterm wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators show limited pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$12,768終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Rob Menendez secured a decisive victory in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Jersey's 8th congressional district, defeating challenger Mussab Ali by roughly 39 points and advancing to the November general election. The district's D+15 partisan voter index, combined with voter registration that favors Democrats by a more than 4-to-1 margin over Republicans, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Republican nominee Anthony Valdes faces structural headwinds in this safely Democratic seat rated Solid D by multiple forecasters. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican midterm wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators show limited pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$12,768終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Rob Menendez secured a decisive victory in the June 2 Democratic primary for New Jersey's 8th congressional district, defeating challenger Mussab Ali by roughly 39 points and advancing to the November general election. The district's D+15 partisan voter index, combined with voter registration that favors Democrats by a more than 4-to-1 margin over Republicans, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Republican nominee Anthony Valdes faces structural headwinds in this safely Democratic seat rated Solid D by multiple forecasters. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or unusually strong national Republican midterm wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current indicators show limited pathways for an upset.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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