Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster Warsaw Chopin Airport's maximum temperature on April 18 around 17-19°C, driving closely matched trader-implied probabilities for 18°C (30.5%), 17°C (27%), and 19°C (18.5%) amid a narrow 2-3°C spread. Mild southerly advection under a high-pressure ridge supports these warmer-than-average outcomes—exceeding mid-April climatological highs of 14°C—but uncertainty stems from divergent cloud cover projections, with ECMWF ensembles median near 17°C due to thicker overcast, while GFS favors clearer skies and greater insolation for 18-19°C peaks. Today's cool 7°C readings highlight spring volatility; updated 12Z model runs on April 17 will likely refine the consensus before final observations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
18°C 31%
17°C 29%
19°C 19%
16°C 14%
신규
신규
2026.04.18
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
10%
16°C
14%
17°C
29%
18°C
31%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
11%
18°C 31%
17°C 29%
19°C 19%
16°C 14%
신규
신규
2026.04.18
10°C or below
$1,379 거래량
<1%
11°C
$995 거래량
<1%
12°C
$576 거래량
1%
13°C
$113 거래량
1%
14°C
$43 거래량
1%
15°C
$28 거래량
10%
16°C
$16 거래량
14%
17°C
$11 거래량
29%
18°C
$18 거래량
31%
19°C
$11 거래량
19%
20°C or higher
$38 거래량
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster Warsaw Chopin Airport's maximum temperature on April 18 around 17-19°C, driving closely matched trader-implied probabilities for 18°C (30.5%), 17°C (27%), and 19°C (18.5%) amid a narrow 2-3°C spread. Mild southerly advection under a high-pressure ridge supports these warmer-than-average outcomes—exceeding mid-April climatological highs of 14°C—but uncertainty stems from divergent cloud cover projections, with ECMWF ensembles median near 17°C due to thicker overcast, while GFS favors clearer skies and greater insolation for 18-19°C peaks. Today's cool 7°C readings highlight spring volatility; updated 12Z model runs on April 17 will likely refine the consensus before final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
거래량
$3,225종료일
2026.04.18마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster Warsaw Chopin Airport's maximum temperature on April 18 around 17-19°C, driving closely matched trader-implied probabilities for 18°C (30.5%), 17°C (27%), and 19°C (18.5%) amid a narrow 2-3°C spread. Mild southerly advection under a high-pressure ridge supports these warmer-than-average outcomes—exceeding mid-April climatological highs of 14°C—but uncertainty stems from divergent cloud cover projections, with ECMWF ensembles median near 17°C due to thicker overcast, while GFS favors clearer skies and greater insolation for 18-19°C peaks. Today's cool 7°C readings highlight spring volatility; updated 12Z model runs on April 17 will likely refine the consensus before final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$3,225종료일
2026.04.18마켓 개설일
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETLatest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts cluster Warsaw Chopin Airport's maximum temperature on April 18 around 17-19°C, driving closely matched trader-implied probabilities for 18°C (30.5%), 17°C (27%), and 19°C (18.5%) amid a narrow 2-3°C spread. Mild southerly advection under a high-pressure ridge supports these warmer-than-average outcomes—exceeding mid-April climatological highs of 14°C—but uncertainty stems from divergent cloud cover projections, with ECMWF ensembles median near 17°C due to thicker overcast, while GFS favors clearer skies and greater insolation for 18-19°C peaks. Today's cool 7°C readings highlight spring volatility; updated 12Z model runs on April 17 will likely refine the consensus before final observations.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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