Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit rate steady at 2% amid sharply revised-up inflation forecasts to 2.6% for the year, citing upside risks from the Middle East conflict and surging energy prices. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks highlighted an adverse economic scenario with March inflation at 2.5%, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance as inflation is not projected to hit the 2% target until Q2 2027. Recent Reuters polls show most economists expecting rates unchanged through 2026, with some banks like Morgan Stanley eyeing potential hikes, outweighing subdued growth projections of 0.9%. The next policy meeting on April 30 could provide further signals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiEvet
$25,095 Hac.
$25,095 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$25,095 Hac.
$25,095 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit rate steady at 2% amid sharply revised-up inflation forecasts to 2.6% for the year, citing upside risks from the Middle East conflict and surging energy prices. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks highlighted an adverse economic scenario with March inflation at 2.5%, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance as inflation is not projected to hit the 2% target until Q2 2027. Recent Reuters polls show most economists expecting rates unchanged through 2026, with some banks like Morgan Stanley eyeing potential hikes, outweighing subdued growth projections of 0.9%. The next policy meeting on April 30 could provide further signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Hacim
$25,095Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit rate steady at 2% amid sharply revised-up inflation forecasts to 2.6% for the year, citing upside risks from the Middle East conflict and surging energy prices. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks highlighted an adverse economic scenario with March inflation at 2.5%, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance as inflation is not projected to hit the 2% target until Q2 2027. Recent Reuters polls show most economists expecting rates unchanged through 2026, with some banks like Morgan Stanley eyeing potential hikes, outweighing subdued growth projections of 0.9%. The next policy meeting on April 30 could provide further signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$25,095Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit rate steady at 2% amid sharply revised-up inflation forecasts to 2.6% for the year, citing upside risks from the Middle East conflict and surging energy prices. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks highlighted an adverse economic scenario with March inflation at 2.5%, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance as inflation is not projected to hit the 2% target until Q2 2027. Recent Reuters polls show most economists expecting rates unchanged through 2026, with some banks like Morgan Stanley eyeing potential hikes, outweighing subdued growth projections of 0.9%. The next policy meeting on April 30 could provide further signals.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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