Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability of no US recession by end-2026, driven by resilient March 2026 labor market data showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—reversing February's decline—and unemployment steadying at 4.3%, alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q1 growth at 1.6%. Despite hotter-than-expected March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy shocks from Iran-related geopolitical tensions, core inflation held at 2.6%, signaling potential transience. Federal funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75% post-March FOMC hold, with minutes revealing openness to hikes but expectations for cuts later. Key catalysts ahead include April 28-29 FOMC and Q1 GDP advance estimate, amid forecaster base rates around 30% recession risk.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiABD'nin 2026 'nın sonuna kadar resesyona girmesi?
ABD'nin 2026 'nın sonuna kadar resesyona girmesi?
Evet
$1,306,817 Hac.
$1,306,817 Hac.
31 Oca 2027
Evet
$1,306,817 Hac.
$1,306,817 Hac.
31 Oca 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability of no US recession by end-2026, driven by resilient March 2026 labor market data showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—reversing February's decline—and unemployment steadying at 4.3%, alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q1 growth at 1.6%. Despite hotter-than-expected March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy shocks from Iran-related geopolitical tensions, core inflation held at 2.6%, signaling potential transience. Federal funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75% post-March FOMC hold, with minutes revealing openness to hikes but expectations for cuts later. Key catalysts ahead include April 28-29 FOMC and Q1 GDP advance estimate, amid forecaster base rates around 30% recession risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Piyasa Açıldı: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Hacim
$1,306,817Bitiş Tarihi
31 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability of no US recession by end-2026, driven by resilient March 2026 labor market data showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—reversing February's decline—and unemployment steadying at 4.3%, alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q1 growth at 1.6%. Despite hotter-than-expected March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy shocks from Iran-related geopolitical tensions, core inflation held at 2.6%, signaling potential transience. Federal funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75% post-March FOMC hold, with minutes revealing openness to hikes but expectations for cuts later. Key catalysts ahead include April 28-29 FOMC and Q1 GDP advance estimate, amid forecaster base rates around 30% recession risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Hacim
$1,306,817Bitiş Tarihi
31 Oca 2027Piyasa Açıldı
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 71.5% implied probability of no US recession by end-2026, driven by resilient March 2026 labor market data showing nonfarm payrolls rising 178,000—reversing February's decline—and unemployment steadying at 4.3%, alongside Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q1 growth at 1.6%. Despite hotter-than-expected March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year, fueled by energy shocks from Iran-related geopolitical tensions, core inflation held at 2.6%, signaling potential transience. Federal funds rate remains at 3.5%-3.75% post-March FOMC hold, with minutes revealing openness to hikes but expectations for cuts later. Key catalysts ahead include April 28-29 FOMC and Q1 GDP advance estimate, amid forecaster base rates around 30% recession risk.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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