Polymarket traders are pricing a 62.5% implied probability of an Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's July 2026 decision, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and shifting economist forecasts amid a cautiously optimistic economic outlook. The RBNZ held the OCR steady at 2.25%—below its estimated neutral rate of 3%—in its April 8 consensus decision, citing Middle East tensions and oil supply risks that could elevate inflation further after Q4 2025 CPI printed at 3.1% annually, above the 1-3% target band. ANZ recently revised its outlook to forecast a first hike to 3% in July, followed by two more, as spare capacity eases but price pressures linger. No-change odds at 28% capture balanced risks, while a 4.9% cut chance signals low recession fears ahead of the May 27 review and Q1 CPI data.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiReserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in July?
Increase 63%
No Change 37%
Decrease 4.8%
YENİ
YENİ
7 Tem 2026
Increase
63%
No Change
29%
Decrease
5%
Increase 63%
No Change 37%
Decrease 4.8%
YENİ
YENİ
7 Tem 2026
Increase
$1,987 Hac.
63%
No Change
$23 Hac.
29%
Decrease
$187 Hac.
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders are pricing a 62.5% implied probability of an Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's July 2026 decision, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and shifting economist forecasts amid a cautiously optimistic economic outlook. The RBNZ held the OCR steady at 2.25%—below its estimated neutral rate of 3%—in its April 8 consensus decision, citing Middle East tensions and oil supply risks that could elevate inflation further after Q4 2025 CPI printed at 3.1% annually, above the 1-3% target band. ANZ recently revised its outlook to forecast a first hike to 3% in July, followed by two more, as spare capacity eases but price pressures linger. No-change odds at 28% capture balanced risks, while a 4.9% cut chance signals low recession fears ahead of the May 27 review and Q1 CPI data.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Apr 8, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Hacim
$2,196Bitiş Tarihi
7 Tem 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders are pricing a 62.5% implied probability of an Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's July 2026 decision, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and shifting economist forecasts amid a cautiously optimistic economic outlook. The RBNZ held the OCR steady at 2.25%—below its estimated neutral rate of 3%—in its April 8 consensus decision, citing Middle East tensions and oil supply risks that could elevate inflation further after Q4 2025 CPI printed at 3.1% annually, above the 1-3% target band. ANZ recently revised its outlook to forecast a first hike to 3% in July, followed by two more, as spare capacity eases but price pressures linger. No-change odds at 28% capture balanced risks, while a 4.9% cut chance signals low recession fears ahead of the May 27 review and Q1 CPI data.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s July monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its July 7, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their July 7, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$2,196Bitiş Tarihi
7 Tem 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Apr 8, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders are pricing a 62.5% implied probability of an Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's July 2026 decision, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and shifting economist forecasts amid a cautiously optimistic economic outlook. The RBNZ held the OCR steady at 2.25%—below its estimated neutral rate of 3%—in its April 8 consensus decision, citing Middle East tensions and oil supply risks that could elevate inflation further after Q4 2025 CPI printed at 3.1% annually, above the 1-3% target band. ANZ recently revised its outlook to forecast a first hike to 3% in July, followed by two more, as spare capacity eases but price pressures linger. No-change odds at 28% capture balanced risks, while a 4.9% cut chance signals low recession fears ahead of the May 27 review and Q1 CPI data.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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