Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an implied 78.5% probability to a Banco de la República rate increase at its April 2026 meeting, reflecting persistent CPI inflation above the 3% target, which accelerated to 5.6% year-over-year in March from 5.3% in February amid supply-side pressures, wage hikes, and imported cost increases. The board's aggressive tightening—two 100-basis-point hikes in January and March to 11.25% in split 4-2-1 votes—has failed to fully anchor inflation expectations, prioritizing price stability over growth concerns despite a government rift, including the finance minister's board withdrawal post-March decision. No-change odds at 18% capture pause hopes amid slowing GDP, while a cut at 0.4% faces high barriers from sticky core inflation; watch late-April minutes for resolution signals.