Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy shocks from the Iran conflict, even after its recent ceasefire. Headline inflation surged to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% on March 19 while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%. ECB President Christine Lagarde and policymakers like Olli Rehn have signaled readiness for hikes if pressures endure, with markets now pricing two increases despite April 14-16 comments tempering April 30 expectations. Upcoming data and the next policy meeting will be pivotal.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da ECB faiz artırımı mı?
2026 'da ECB faiz artırımı mı?
Evet
$93,870 Hac.
$93,870 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$93,870 Hac.
$93,870 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy shocks from the Iran conflict, even after its recent ceasefire. Headline inflation surged to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% on March 19 while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%. ECB President Christine Lagarde and policymakers like Olli Rehn have signaled readiness for hikes if pressures endure, with markets now pricing two increases despite April 14-16 comments tempering April 30 expectations. Upcoming data and the next policy meeting will be pivotal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Hacim
$93,870Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy shocks from the Iran conflict, even after its recent ceasefire. Headline inflation surged to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% on March 19 while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%. ECB President Christine Lagarde and policymakers like Olli Rehn have signaled readiness for hikes if pressures endure, with markets now pricing two increases despite April 14-16 comments tempering April 30 expectations. Upcoming data and the next policy meeting will be pivotal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$93,870Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by persistent eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy shocks from the Iran conflict, even after its recent ceasefire. Headline inflation surged to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February, prompting the ECB Governing Council to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% on March 19 while sharply raising its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6%. ECB President Christine Lagarde and policymakers like Olli Rehn have signaled readiness for hikes if pressures endure, with markets now pricing two increases despite April 14-16 comments tempering April 30 expectations. Upcoming data and the next policy meeting will be pivotal.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular