Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% chance of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by March's eurozone inflation flash estimate surging to 2.5% from 1.9%—above the 2% target—amid lingering energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, despite a recent ceasefire. The ECB's March 19 Governing Council meeting held the deposit rate at 2% but sharply revised 2026 headline inflation projections upward to 2.6% average, delaying the return to target until Q2 2027, while downgrading GDP growth to 0.9%. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks noted the economy slipping toward an adverse scenario without ruling out hikes, aligning with major banks forecasting 2-3 quarter-point increases and markets pricing rates toward 2.6%. The next decision looms April 30.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi2026 'da ECB faiz artırımı mı?
2026 'da ECB faiz artırımı mı?
Evet
$93,870 Hac.
$93,870 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
Evet
$93,870 Hac.
$93,870 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% chance of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by March's eurozone inflation flash estimate surging to 2.5% from 1.9%—above the 2% target—amid lingering energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, despite a recent ceasefire. The ECB's March 19 Governing Council meeting held the deposit rate at 2% but sharply revised 2026 headline inflation projections upward to 2.6% average, delaying the return to target until Q2 2027, while downgrading GDP growth to 0.9%. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks noted the economy slipping toward an adverse scenario without ruling out hikes, aligning with major banks forecasting 2-3 quarter-point increases and markets pricing rates toward 2.6%. The next decision looms April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Piyasa Açıldı: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Hacim
$93,870Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% chance of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by March's eurozone inflation flash estimate surging to 2.5% from 1.9%—above the 2% target—amid lingering energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, despite a recent ceasefire. The ECB's March 19 Governing Council meeting held the deposit rate at 2% but sharply revised 2026 headline inflation projections upward to 2.6% average, delaying the return to target until Q2 2027, while downgrading GDP growth to 0.9%. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks noted the economy slipping toward an adverse scenario without ruling out hikes, aligning with major banks forecasting 2-3 quarter-point increases and markets pricing rates toward 2.6%. The next decision looms April 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Hacim
$93,870Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73.5% chance of an ECB rate hike in 2026, driven by March's eurozone inflation flash estimate surging to 2.5% from 1.9%—above the 2% target—amid lingering energy price shocks from the Iran conflict, despite a recent ceasefire. The ECB's March 19 Governing Council meeting held the deposit rate at 2% but sharply revised 2026 headline inflation projections upward to 2.6% average, delaying the return to target until Q2 2027, while downgrading GDP growth to 0.9%. ECB President Lagarde's April 14 remarks noted the economy slipping toward an adverse scenario without ruling out hikes, aligning with major banks forecasting 2-3 quarter-point increases and markets pricing rates toward 2.6%. The next decision looms April 30.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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