Trader consensus around 30–31°C for Beijing’s July 1 maximum reflects typical early-July climatology, with long-term averages near 31°C and recent model guidance showing daytime highs of 30–32°C under partly cloudy skies. Short-range forecasts indicate light winds and moderate humidity that limit extreme heating, while the chance of scattered showers or increased cloud cover could cap temperatures near the lower end of that range. Scientific uncertainty arises from day-to-day variability in the East Asian summer monsoon and the precise timing of any frontal passages, factors that keep the market closely split between the two leading outcomes and assign only modest probability to outliers above 33°C or below 29°C. Updated numerical weather prediction runs over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst for any shift in implied probabilities.