Recent numerical weather prediction models for Beijing indicate a daily maximum near 31–33°C on July 18, driven by typical mid-July synoptic patterns featuring warm, humid southerly flow under a subtropical high with embedded convective activity. Scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover could cap peak readings by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while clear intervals or delayed precipitation would allow temperatures to reach or exceed 33°C. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add variability to official station measurements used for resolution. Market-implied probabilities around 26% for 31°C and 24% for 32°C reflect traders weighting the balance between forecast guidance and these near-term atmospheric uncertainties ahead of final model runs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月18日北京最高溫度？
7月18日北京最高溫度？
31°C 100.0%
28°C或以下 <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$82,054 交易量
$82,054 交易量
2026-07-18
28°C或以下
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
是
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C
否
35°C
否
36°C
否
37°C
否
38°C或以上
否
31°C 100.0%
28°C或以下 <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$82,054 交易量
$82,054 交易量
2026-07-18
28°C或以下
$8,280 交易量
否
29°C
$13,925 交易量
否
30°C
$10,950 交易量
否
31°C
$10,133 交易量
是
32°C
$12,057 交易量
否
33°C
$9,356 交易量
否
34°C
$7,214 交易量
否
35°C
$5,041 交易量
否
36°C
$4,649 交易量
否
37°C
$222 交易量
否
38°C或以上
$228 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models for Beijing indicate a daily maximum near 31–33°C on July 18, driven by typical mid-July synoptic patterns featuring warm, humid southerly flow under a subtropical high with embedded convective activity. Scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover could cap peak readings by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while clear intervals or delayed precipitation would allow temperatures to reach or exceed 33°C. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add variability to official station measurements used for resolution. Market-implied probabilities around 26% for 31°C and 24% for 32°C reflect traders weighting the balance between forecast guidance and these near-term atmospheric uncertainties ahead of final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$82,054結束日期
2026-07-18市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models for Beijing indicate a daily maximum near 31–33°C on July 18, driven by typical mid-July synoptic patterns featuring warm, humid southerly flow under a subtropical high with embedded convective activity. Scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover could cap peak readings by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while clear intervals or delayed precipitation would allow temperatures to reach or exceed 33°C. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add variability to official station measurements used for resolution. Market-implied probabilities around 26% for 31°C and 24% for 32°C reflect traders weighting the balance between forecast guidance and these near-term atmospheric uncertainties ahead of final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$82,054結束日期
2026-07-18市場開放時間
Jul 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent numerical weather prediction models for Beijing indicate a daily maximum near 31–33°C on July 18, driven by typical mid-July synoptic patterns featuring warm, humid southerly flow under a subtropical high with embedded convective activity. Scattered thunderstorms and increased cloud cover could cap peak readings by reducing insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling, while clear intervals or delayed precipitation would allow temperatures to reach or exceed 33°C. Urban heat-island effects and local wind patterns add variability to official station measurements used for resolution. Market-implied probabilities around 26% for 31°C and 24% for 32°C reflect traders weighting the balance between forecast guidance and these near-term atmospheric uncertainties ahead of final model runs.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions