**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月23日北京最高溫度？
7月23日北京最高溫度？
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$130,702 交易量
$130,702 交易量
2026-07-23
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$130,702 交易量
$130,702 交易量
2026-07-23
24°C or below
$2,719 交易量
No
25°C
$6,658 交易量
No
26°C
$10,063 交易量
No
27°C
$23,482 交易量
No
28°C
$15,704 交易量
Yes
29°C
$37,259 交易量
No
30°C
$12,793 交易量
No
31°C
$10,068 交易量
No
32°C
$6,580 交易量
No
33°C
$3,062 交易量
No
34°C or higher
$2,315 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling.
Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$130,702結束日期
2026-07-23市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling.
Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$130,702結束日期
2026-07-23市場開放時間
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions