**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a high of 22–24°C for Madrid on August 27, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes of 23°C (37.5% implied probability) and 24°C (26.5%).** This cooler-than-average reading—well below the long-term August 27 high of about 31°C—stems from increased cloud cover, southwesterly flow, and possible light precipitation that limit daytime heating. Models show overcast or mostly cloudy skies through the afternoon, with dew points and humidity supporting modest temperatures around 21–23°C at peak. Recent data shifts on August 26, including updated runs highlighting a transient weather system, have reinforced this cooler regime and explain why probabilities cluster tightly around 22–25°C while higher thresholds (26°C+) remain below 5% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus of official guidance on suppressed insolation and wind patterns. Upcoming hourly observations and any final model adjustments before dawn on the 27th could still nudge the exact maximum within this narrow range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月27日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月27日馬德裏氣溫最高？
23°C 38%
24°C 26%
22°C 18%
25°C 12%
最新
$28,378 交易量
最新
$28,378 交易量
2026-08-27
21°C or below
5%
22°C
18%
23°C
38%
24°C
26%
25°C
12%
26°C
3%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
23°C 38%
24°C 26%
22°C 18%
25°C 12%
最新
$28,378 交易量
最新
$28,378 交易量
2026-08-27
21°C or below
$1,667 交易量
5%
22°C
$2,338 交易量
18%
23°C
$3,057 交易量
38%
24°C
$2,529 交易量
26%
25°C
$3,876 交易量
12%
26°C
$6,272 交易量
3%
27°C
$1,940 交易量
2%
28°C
$1,070 交易量
1%
29°C
$1,140 交易量
<1%
30°C
$1,453 交易量
<1%
31°C or higher
$3,036 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a high of 22–24°C for Madrid on August 27, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes of 23°C (37.5% implied probability) and 24°C (26.5%).**
This cooler-than-average reading—well below the long-term August 27 high of about 31°C—stems from increased cloud cover, southwesterly flow, and possible light precipitation that limit daytime heating. Models show overcast or mostly cloudy skies through the afternoon, with dew points and humidity supporting modest temperatures around 21–23°C at peak.
Recent data shifts on August 26, including updated runs highlighting a transient weather system, have reinforced this cooler regime and explain why probabilities cluster tightly around 22–25°C while higher thresholds (26°C+) remain below 5% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus of official guidance on suppressed insolation and wind patterns.
Upcoming hourly observations and any final model adjustments before dawn on the 27th could still nudge the exact maximum within this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$28,378結束日期
2026-08-27市場開放時間
Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a high of 22–24°C for Madrid on August 27, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes of 23°C (37.5% implied probability) and 24°C (26.5%).**
This cooler-than-average reading—well below the long-term August 27 high of about 31°C—stems from increased cloud cover, southwesterly flow, and possible light precipitation that limit daytime heating. Models show overcast or mostly cloudy skies through the afternoon, with dew points and humidity supporting modest temperatures around 21–23°C at peak.
Recent data shifts on August 26, including updated runs highlighting a transient weather system, have reinforced this cooler regime and explain why probabilities cluster tightly around 22–25°C while higher thresholds (26°C+) remain below 5% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus of official guidance on suppressed insolation and wind patterns.
Upcoming hourly observations and any final model adjustments before dawn on the 27th could still nudge the exact maximum within this narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$28,378結束日期
2026-08-27市場開放時間
Aug 25, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a high of 22–24°C for Madrid on August 27, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes of 23°C (37.5% implied probability) and 24°C (26.5%).** This cooler-than-average reading—well below the long-term August 27 high of about 31°C—stems from increased cloud cover, southwesterly flow, and possible light precipitation that limit daytime heating. Models show overcast or mostly cloudy skies through the afternoon, with dew points and humidity supporting modest temperatures around 21–23°C at peak. Recent data shifts on August 26, including updated runs highlighting a transient weather system, have reinforced this cooler regime and explain why probabilities cluster tightly around 22–25°C while higher thresholds (26°C+) remain below 5% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the consensus of official guidance on suppressed insolation and wind patterns. Upcoming hourly observations and any final model adjustments before dawn on the 27th could still nudge the exact maximum within this narrow range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions