Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and regional runs points to a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Madrid on August 26, supported by increasing cloud cover, southwesterly flow, and moderating Atlantic air that limits daytime heating. Current conditions show highs near 26–28°C on the 24th–25th with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, consistent with a post-peak summer cooling trend. Historical late-August averages near 31°C provide context, yet this setup favors the lower end of the distribution. Market-implied probabilities align closely with these outputs, with limited upside risk from model spreads in timing or cloud thickness. Updated AEMET briefings and next model cycles will refine the exact peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月26日馬德裏氣溫最高？
29°C 44%
30°C 22%
28°C 19%
27°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
25°C or below
2%
26°C
5%
27°C
9%
28°C
19%
29°C
44%
30°C
22%
31°C
8%
32°C
6%
33°C
4%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
2%
29°C 44%
30°C 22%
28°C 19%
27°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
25°C or below
$5 交易量
2%
26°C
$40 交易量
5%
27°C
$0 交易量
9%
28°C
$42 交易量
19%
29°C
$52 交易量
44%
30°C
$201 交易量
22%
31°C
$0 交易量
8%
32°C
$73 交易量
6%
33°C
$5 交易量
4%
34°C
$0 交易量
3%
35°C or higher
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and regional runs points to a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Madrid on August 26, supported by increasing cloud cover, southwesterly flow, and moderating Atlantic air that limits daytime heating. Current conditions show highs near 26–28°C on the 24th–25th with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, consistent with a post-peak summer cooling trend. Historical late-August averages near 31°C provide context, yet this setup favors the lower end of the distribution. Market-implied probabilities align closely with these outputs, with limited upside risk from model spreads in timing or cloud thickness. Updated AEMET briefings and next model cycles will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$419結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models including GFS and regional runs points to a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Madrid on August 26, supported by increasing cloud cover, southwesterly flow, and moderating Atlantic air that limits daytime heating. Current conditions show highs near 26–28°C on the 24th–25th with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, consistent with a post-peak summer cooling trend. Historical late-August averages near 31°C provide context, yet this setup favors the lower end of the distribution. Market-implied probabilities align closely with these outputs, with limited upside risk from model spreads in timing or cloud thickness. Updated AEMET briefings and next model cycles will refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$419結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent forecast consensus from models including GFS and regional runs points to a daily maximum of 28–29°C in Madrid on August 26, supported by increasing cloud cover, southwesterly flow, and moderating Atlantic air that limits daytime heating. Current conditions show highs near 26–28°C on the 24th–25th with partly to mostly cloudy skies and light winds, consistent with a post-peak summer cooling trend. Historical late-August averages near 31°C provide context, yet this setup favors the lower end of the distribution. Market-implied probabilities align closely with these outputs, with limited upside risk from model spreads in timing or cloud thickness. Updated AEMET briefings and next model cycles will refine the exact peak.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions