Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service (NWS) guidance showing New York City's highest temperature on April 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F, with 64-65°F (29.5% implied probability) edging 66-67°F (29.0%) amid model ensemble spread. This follows a warm spell through April 17, where highs neared 80°F under a persistent upper-level ridge, but latest GFS and ECMWF runs project moderation as a weakening front approaches from the northwest, increasing cloud cover and shower chances that cap daytime heating. Differentiating factors include precise timing of cloud onset—earlier overcast favors 64-65°F, while delayed clearing boosts 66-67°F—against the April climatological normal of 62°F. New NWS updates and 00Z model runs expected overnight could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in NYC on April 18?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 18?
64-65°F 30%
66-67°F 28%
62-63°F 21%
68-69°F 14%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
10%
62-63°F
21%
64-65°F
30%
66-67°F
28%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
5%
72°F or higher
7%
64-65°F 30%
66-67°F 28%
62-63°F 21%
68-69°F 14%
最新
最新
2026-04-18
53°F or below
$631 交易量
<1%
54-55°F
$636 交易量
<1%
56-57°F
$833 交易量
1%
58-59°F
$211 交易量
4%
60-61°F
$492 交易量
10%
62-63°F
$231 交易量
21%
64-65°F
$169 交易量
30%
66-67°F
$149 交易量
28%
68-69°F
$177 交易量
14%
70-71°F
$440 交易量
5%
72°F or higher
$766 交易量
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service (NWS) guidance showing New York City's highest temperature on April 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F, with 64-65°F (29.5% implied probability) edging 66-67°F (29.0%) amid model ensemble spread. This follows a warm spell through April 17, where highs neared 80°F under a persistent upper-level ridge, but latest GFS and ECMWF runs project moderation as a weakening front approaches from the northwest, increasing cloud cover and shower chances that cap daytime heating. Differentiating factors include precise timing of cloud onset—earlier overcast favors 64-65°F, while delayed clearing boosts 66-67°F—against the April climatological normal of 62°F. New NWS updates and 00Z model runs expected overnight could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$4,355結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service (NWS) guidance showing New York City's highest temperature on April 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F, with 64-65°F (29.5% implied probability) edging 66-67°F (29.0%) amid model ensemble spread. This follows a warm spell through April 17, where highs neared 80°F under a persistent upper-level ridge, but latest GFS and ECMWF runs project moderation as a weakening front approaches from the northwest, increasing cloud cover and shower chances that cap daytime heating. Differentiating factors include precise timing of cloud onset—earlier overcast favors 64-65°F, while delayed clearing boosts 66-67°F—against the April climatological normal of 62°F. New NWS updates and 00Z model runs expected overnight could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$4,355結束日期
2026-04-18市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service (NWS) guidance showing New York City's highest temperature on April 18 clustering in the mid-60s°F, with 64-65°F (29.5% implied probability) edging 66-67°F (29.0%) amid model ensemble spread. This follows a warm spell through April 17, where highs neared 80°F under a persistent upper-level ridge, but latest GFS and ECMWF runs project moderation as a weakening front approaches from the northwest, increasing cloud cover and shower chances that cap daytime heating. Differentiating factors include precise timing of cloud onset—earlier overcast favors 64-65°F, while delayed clearing boosts 66-67°F—against the April climatological normal of 62°F. New NWS updates and 00Z model runs expected overnight could refine this uncertainty before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions