Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 14-16°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following recent mild spring conditions. The slim edge for 15°C stems from the median model projection, bolstered by today's observed high near 15°C and minimal overnight cooling under variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences in boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating potential—GFS runs slightly warmer at 16°C in some members, while ECMWF emphasizes increased cloudiness capping at 14°C. Official IMGW observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market; watch evening model updates for shifts ahead of peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 17?
15°C 31%
14°C 29%
16°C 27%
17°C or higher 11%
最新
$10,742 交易量
最新
$10,742 交易量
2026-04-17
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
5%
14°C
29%
15°C
31%
16°C
27%
17°C or higher
11%
15°C 31%
14°C 29%
16°C 27%
17°C or higher 11%
最新
$10,742 交易量
最新
$10,742 交易量
2026-04-17
7°C or below
$844 交易量
<1%
8°C
$1,338 交易量
<1%
9°C
$1,986 交易量
<1%
10°C
$1,367 交易量
<1%
11°C
$1,175 交易量
1%
12°C
$649 交易量
3%
13°C
$1,224 交易量
5%
14°C
$479 交易量
29%
15°C
$359 交易量
31%
16°C
$577 交易量
27%
17°C or higher
$757 交易量
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 14-16°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following recent mild spring conditions. The slim edge for 15°C stems from the median model projection, bolstered by today's observed high near 15°C and minimal overnight cooling under variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences in boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating potential—GFS runs slightly warmer at 16°C in some members, while ECMWF emphasizes increased cloudiness capping at 14°C. Official IMGW observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market; watch evening model updates for shifts ahead of peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
交易量
$10,742結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 14-16°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following recent mild spring conditions. The slim edge for 15°C stems from the median model projection, bolstered by today's observed high near 15°C and minimal overnight cooling under variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences in boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating potential—GFS runs slightly warmer at 16°C in some members, while ECMWF emphasizes increased cloudiness capping at 14°C. Official IMGW observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market; watch evening model updates for shifts ahead of peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$10,742結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 12:24 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Warsaw's highest temperature on April 17, with ECMWF and GFS ensembles centering around 14-16°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds following recent mild spring conditions. The slim edge for 15°C stems from the median model projection, bolstered by today's observed high near 15°C and minimal overnight cooling under variable cloud cover. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences in boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating potential—GFS runs slightly warmer at 16°C in some members, while ECMWF emphasizes increased cloudiness capping at 14°C. Official IMGW observations at Chopin Airport will resolve the market; watch evening model updates for shifts ahead of peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions