Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 17, with 20°C leading at 31.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C (27%) and 21°C (22%), driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance showing highs clustering around 19-21°C amid recovering spring warmth. Observational data confirms a recent uptick from 17°C on April 14 under persistent cloud cover and light rain to near 20°C on April 15, as weakening frontal influences allow southerly winds and increasing insolation to boost temperatures. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS highlight variability from potential scattered showers versus clearer skies, against mid-April climatological averages of 19-20°C enhanced by urban heat island effects. Updated CMA bulletins and model runs on April 16 could resolve the narrow differentiation before official station measurements determine the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 17?
20°C 25%
21°C 24%
19°C 20%
18°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
9%
18°C
15%
19°C
20%
20°C
25%
21°C
24%
22°C
3%
23°C or higher
4%
20°C 25%
21°C 24%
19°C 20%
18°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
13°C or below
$930 交易量
<1%
14°C
$631 交易量
1%
15°C
$421 交易量
1%
16°C
$184 交易量
2%
17°C
$151 交易量
9%
18°C
$33 交易量
15%
19°C
$13 交易量
20%
20°C
$37 交易量
25%
21°C
$8 交易量
24%
22°C
$97 交易量
3%
23°C or higher
$235 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 17, with 20°C leading at 31.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C (27%) and 21°C (22%), driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance showing highs clustering around 19-21°C amid recovering spring warmth. Observational data confirms a recent uptick from 17°C on April 14 under persistent cloud cover and light rain to near 20°C on April 15, as weakening frontal influences allow southerly winds and increasing insolation to boost temperatures. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS highlight variability from potential scattered showers versus clearer skies, against mid-April climatological averages of 19-20°C enhanced by urban heat island effects. Updated CMA bulletins and model runs on April 16 could resolve the narrow differentiation before official station measurements determine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$2,666结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 17, with 20°C leading at 31.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C (27%) and 21°C (22%), driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance showing highs clustering around 19-21°C amid recovering spring warmth. Observational data confirms a recent uptick from 17°C on April 14 under persistent cloud cover and light rain to near 20°C on April 15, as weakening frontal influences allow southerly winds and increasing insolation to boost temperatures. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS highlight variability from potential scattered showers versus clearer skies, against mid-April climatological averages of 19-20°C enhanced by urban heat island effects. Updated CMA bulletins and model runs on April 16 could resolve the narrow differentiation before official station measurements determine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$2,666结束日期
2026-04-17市场开放时间
Apr 15, 2026, 12:06 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Shanghai's highest temperature on April 17, with 20°C leading at 31.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C (27%) and 21°C (22%), driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) guidance showing highs clustering around 19-21°C amid recovering spring warmth. Observational data confirms a recent uptick from 17°C on April 14 under persistent cloud cover and light rain to near 20°C on April 15, as weakening frontal influences allow southerly winds and increasing insolation to boost temperatures. Ensemble model spreads from ECMWF and GFS highlight variability from potential scattered showers versus clearer skies, against mid-April climatological averages of 19-20°C enhanced by urban heat island effects. Updated CMA bulletins and model runs on April 16 could resolve the narrow differentiation before official station measurements determine the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题