Environment Canada’s latest forecast for Toronto Pearson International Airport projects a daytime high of 8°C on April 12 under mainly cloudy skies with periods of rain beginning in the morning and east winds gusting to 40 km/h, anchoring trader consensus around 7–11°C outcomes and implying tight market-implied odds. This positioning reflects a cool upper-level trough and onshore flow capping boundary-layer mixing and solar heating, with recent cool anomalies—including early April snow—further suppressing temperatures below the ~10°C seasonal norm. Differentiating factors include rain onset timing: delayed precipitation allows brief afternoon peaks near 10–11°C via insolation, while earlier or thicker clouds favor 7–9°C; ensemble models show this spread, with overnight updates key before observations finalize resolution.