Forecast models from agencies including Inmet and international services converge on a daily maximum near 28°C for São Paulo on August 5, reflecting mild winter conditions typical of the dry season with light winds, partial cloud cover, and limited moisture. This positions 28°C as the market favorite at 48% implied probability, ahead of 27°C (22%) and 29°C (20%), consistent with historical August averages of 23–25°C and recent guidance for slightly above-normal temperatures across southeastern Brazil. Low odds for 30°C or higher align with stable atmospheric patterns that limit strong daytime heating, while cooler outcomes remain possible only with unexpected cloud buildup or frontal passage. Updated model runs and official observations will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 5?
28°C 48%
27°C 22%
29°C 20%
30°C 5%
$10,367 Vol.
$10,367 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
22%
28°C
48%
29°C
20%
30°C
5%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 48%
27°C 22%
29°C 20%
30°C 5%
$10,367 Vol.
$10,367 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
$369 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$519 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$461 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$721 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,653 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,590 Vol.
22%
28°C
$1,384 Vol.
48%
29°C
$1,021 Vol.
20%
30°C
$780 Vol.
5%
31°C
$832 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$1,036 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including Inmet and international services converge on a daily maximum near 28°C for São Paulo on August 5, reflecting mild winter conditions typical of the dry season with light winds, partial cloud cover, and limited moisture. This positions 28°C as the market favorite at 48% implied probability, ahead of 27°C (22%) and 29°C (20%), consistent with historical August averages of 23–25°C and recent guidance for slightly above-normal temperatures across southeastern Brazil. Low odds for 30°C or higher align with stable atmospheric patterns that limit strong daytime heating, while cooler outcomes remain possible only with unexpected cloud buildup or frontal passage. Updated model runs and official observations will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$10,367End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including Inmet and international services converge on a daily maximum near 28°C for São Paulo on August 5, reflecting mild winter conditions typical of the dry season with light winds, partial cloud cover, and limited moisture. This positions 28°C as the market favorite at 48% implied probability, ahead of 27°C (22%) and 29°C (20%), consistent with historical August averages of 23–25°C and recent guidance for slightly above-normal temperatures across southeastern Brazil. Low odds for 30°C or higher align with stable atmospheric patterns that limit strong daytime heating, while cooler outcomes remain possible only with unexpected cloud buildup or frontal passage. Updated model runs and official observations will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,367End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including Inmet and international services converge on a daily maximum near 28°C for São Paulo on August 5, reflecting mild winter conditions typical of the dry season with light winds, partial cloud cover, and limited moisture. This positions 28°C as the market favorite at 48% implied probability, ahead of 27°C (22%) and 29°C (20%), consistent with historical August averages of 23–25°C and recent guidance for slightly above-normal temperatures across southeastern Brazil. Low odds for 30°C or higher align with stable atmospheric patterns that limit strong daytime heating, while cooler outcomes remain possible only with unexpected cloud buildup or frontal passage. Updated model runs and official observations will refine these probabilities as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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