The eastern San Francisco Bay Area district encompassing Hayward, Fremont, and Livermore maintains a strong Democratic voter registration edge of roughly 50 percent to 17 percent Republican. This structural advantage, combined with the open seat following incumbent Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation amid allegations, has produced a crowded Democratic primary field while drawing only limited Republican challengers ahead of the June special primary and November general. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with recent polling and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national swing or major local disruption, neither of which has materialized in recent cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$26,529 Vol.
$26,529 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$26,529 Vol.
$26,529 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,560 Vol.
94%
共和党
$17,969 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The eastern San Francisco Bay Area district encompassing Hayward, Fremont, and Livermore maintains a strong Democratic voter registration edge of roughly 50 percent to 17 percent Republican. This structural advantage, combined with the open seat following incumbent Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation amid allegations, has produced a crowded Democratic primary field while drawing only limited Republican challengers ahead of the June special primary and November general. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with recent polling and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national swing or major local disruption, neither of which has materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$26,529終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The eastern San Francisco Bay Area district encompassing Hayward, Fremont, and Livermore maintains a strong Democratic voter registration edge of roughly 50 percent to 17 percent Republican. This structural advantage, combined with the open seat following incumbent Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation amid allegations, has produced a crowded Democratic primary field while drawing only limited Republican challengers ahead of the June special primary and November general. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with recent polling and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national swing or major local disruption, neither of which has materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$26,529終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The eastern San Francisco Bay Area district encompassing Hayward, Fremont, and Livermore maintains a strong Democratic voter registration edge of roughly 50 percent to 17 percent Republican. This structural advantage, combined with the open seat following incumbent Eric Swalwell’s April 2026 resignation amid allegations, has produced a crowded Democratic primary field while drawing only limited Republican challengers ahead of the June special primary and November general. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, with recent polling and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as safe Democratic. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented national swing or major local disruption, neither of which has materialized in recent cycles.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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