Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 16°C high in Madrid on April 12 at 65% implied probability, reflecting the latest AEMET forecast guidance amid a sharp cooling trend after 28°C on April 10 and an expected 22–25°C today. Northerly winds at 25 km/h with gusts to 40 km/h usher cooler air masses, combined with extensive cloud cover and an 85% chance of precipitation, suppress daytime heating per model ensembles. This positions nearby outcomes like 15°C (20%) and 17°C (8%) as contenders amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty, while above 18°C odds below 3% cite unfavorable upper-air patterns. AEMET hourly updates overnight could refine peak timing before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on April 12?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 12?
16°C 81%
17°C 12.5%
18°C 2.6%
15°C 1.0%
$59,985 Vol.
$59,985 Vol.
2026/04/12
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
81%
17°C
13%
18°C
3%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
1%
16°C 81%
17°C 12.5%
18°C 2.6%
15°C 1.0%
$59,985 Vol.
$59,985 Vol.
2026/04/12
10°C or below
$6,588 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$3,682 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$8,108 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$6,716 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$5,403 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$7,139 Vol.
1%
16°C
$4,459 Vol.
81%
17°C
$4,988 Vol.
13%
18°C
$4,989 Vol.
3%
19°C
$4,505 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$5,345 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 16°C high in Madrid on April 12 at 65% implied probability, reflecting the latest AEMET forecast guidance amid a sharp cooling trend after 28°C on April 10 and an expected 22–25°C today. Northerly winds at 25 km/h with gusts to 40 km/h usher cooler air masses, combined with extensive cloud cover and an 85% chance of precipitation, suppress daytime heating per model ensembles. This positions nearby outcomes like 15°C (20%) and 17°C (8%) as contenders amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty, while above 18°C odds below 3% cite unfavorable upper-air patterns. AEMET hourly updates overnight could refine peak timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
音量
$59,985終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 16°C high in Madrid on April 12 at 65% implied probability, reflecting the latest AEMET forecast guidance amid a sharp cooling trend after 28°C on April 10 and an expected 22–25°C today. Northerly winds at 25 km/h with gusts to 40 km/h usher cooler air masses, combined with extensive cloud cover and an 85% chance of precipitation, suppress daytime heating per model ensembles. This positions nearby outcomes like 15°C (20%) and 17°C (8%) as contenders amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty, while above 18°C odds below 3% cite unfavorable upper-air patterns. AEMET hourly updates overnight could refine peak timing before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$59,985終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 12:37 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 16°C high in Madrid on April 12 at 65% implied probability, reflecting the latest AEMET forecast guidance amid a sharp cooling trend after 28°C on April 10 and an expected 22–25°C today. Northerly winds at 25 km/h with gusts to 40 km/h usher cooler air masses, combined with extensive cloud cover and an 85% chance of precipitation, suppress daytime heating per model ensembles. This positions nearby outcomes like 15°C (20%) and 17°C (8%) as contenders amid inherent short-range forecast uncertainty, while above 18°C odds below 3% cite unfavorable upper-air patterns. AEMET hourly updates overnight could refine peak timing before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問