Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 24°C maximum temperature in Madrid today, closely trailed by 23°C at 33% and 25°C at 20.5%, reflecting tight forecast model spreads from AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensembles. Recent 12z model runs show a high-pressure ridge over Iberia fostering southerly flows and above-average afternoon heating—Madrid's April climatological high averages 19°C—but with 1-2°C uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light winds around 10 km/h, and precise timing of peak insolation near 3-4 PM local time. Official AEMET hourly observations from Barajas Airport or Retiro stations, expected through evening, will pinpoint the exact highest reading amid this diurnal variability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Madrid on April 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 15?
24°C 42%
23°C 32%
25°C 21%
22°C 2.8%
新規
$34,101 Vol.
新規
$34,101 Vol.
2026/04/15
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
32%
24°C
42%
25°C
21%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 42%
23°C 32%
25°C 21%
22°C 2.8%
新規
$34,101 Vol.
新規
$34,101 Vol.
2026/04/15
18°C or below
$3,215 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$2,313 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,373 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$5,461 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$6,944 Vol.
3%
23°C
$2,314 Vol.
32%
24°C
$2,578 Vol.
42%
25°C
$2,289 Vol.
21%
26°C
$3,695 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,686 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$2,499 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 24°C maximum temperature in Madrid today, closely trailed by 23°C at 33% and 25°C at 20.5%, reflecting tight forecast model spreads from AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensembles. Recent 12z model runs show a high-pressure ridge over Iberia fostering southerly flows and above-average afternoon heating—Madrid's April climatological high averages 19°C—but with 1-2°C uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light winds around 10 km/h, and precise timing of peak insolation near 3-4 PM local time. Official AEMET hourly observations from Barajas Airport or Retiro stations, expected through evening, will pinpoint the exact highest reading amid this diurnal variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
音量
$34,101終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 24°C maximum temperature in Madrid today, closely trailed by 23°C at 33% and 25°C at 20.5%, reflecting tight forecast model spreads from AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensembles. Recent 12z model runs show a high-pressure ridge over Iberia fostering southerly flows and above-average afternoon heating—Madrid's April climatological high averages 19°C—but with 1-2°C uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light winds around 10 km/h, and precise timing of peak insolation near 3-4 PM local time. Official AEMET hourly observations from Barajas Airport or Retiro stations, expected through evening, will pinpoint the exact highest reading amid this diurnal variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$34,101終了日
2026/04/15マーケット開始日
Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 42.5% implied probability to a 24°C maximum temperature in Madrid today, closely trailed by 23°C at 33% and 25°C at 20.5%, reflecting tight forecast model spreads from AEMET guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensembles. Recent 12z model runs show a high-pressure ridge over Iberia fostering southerly flows and above-average afternoon heating—Madrid's April climatological high averages 19°C—but with 1-2°C uncertainty from variable cloud cover, light winds around 10 km/h, and precise timing of peak insolation near 3-4 PM local time. Official AEMET hourly observations from Barajas Airport or Retiro stations, expected through evening, will pinpoint the exact highest reading amid this diurnal variability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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