The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia (Roshydromet) forecasts Moscow's daytime highs of 16–18°C on April 3 under cloudy skies with clearings and no precipitation, driving the 98.7% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher as trader consensus reflects this strong signal from official data. Persistent positive temperature anomalies—building on March's +4.5°C excess above norms—and zonal upper-air steering of mild Atlantic air masses into European Russia underpin the positioning, contrasting early April climatological averages of 9–11°C. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS align on above-normal warmth with low precipitation risk. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or thickened cloud cover capping peaks below 11°C, though synoptic stability limits this; Roshydromet's hourly station observations, including VVC and Balchug, will confirm the peak by resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 3?
11°C or higher 98.6%
10°C 1.7%
9°C <1%
8°C <1%
$22,911 Vol.
$22,911 Vol.
2026/04/03
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C or higher
99%
11°C or higher 98.6%
10°C 1.7%
9°C <1%
8°C <1%
$22,911 Vol.
$22,911 Vol.
2026/04/03
8°C
$1,946 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,551 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,700 Vol.
2%
11°C or higher
$1,701 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia (Roshydromet) forecasts Moscow's daytime highs of 16–18°C on April 3 under cloudy skies with clearings and no precipitation, driving the 98.7% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher as trader consensus reflects this strong signal from official data. Persistent positive temperature anomalies—building on March's +4.5°C excess above norms—and zonal upper-air steering of mild Atlantic air masses into European Russia underpin the positioning, contrasting early April climatological averages of 9–11°C. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS align on above-normal warmth with low precipitation risk. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or thickened cloud cover capping peaks below 11°C, though synoptic stability limits this; Roshydromet's hourly station observations, including VVC and Balchug, will confirm the peak by resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
音量
$22,911終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia (Roshydromet) forecasts Moscow's daytime highs of 16–18°C on April 3 under cloudy skies with clearings and no precipitation, driving the 98.7% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher as trader consensus reflects this strong signal from official data. Persistent positive temperature anomalies—building on March's +4.5°C excess above norms—and zonal upper-air steering of mild Atlantic air masses into European Russia underpin the positioning, contrasting early April climatological averages of 9–11°C. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS align on above-normal warmth with low precipitation risk. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or thickened cloud cover capping peaks below 11°C, though synoptic stability limits this; Roshydromet's hourly station observations, including VVC and Balchug, will confirm the peak by resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$22,911終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Hydrometeorological Center of Russia (Roshydromet) forecasts Moscow's daytime highs of 16–18°C on April 3 under cloudy skies with clearings and no precipitation, driving the 98.7% market-implied probability for 11°C or higher as trader consensus reflects this strong signal from official data. Persistent positive temperature anomalies—building on March's +4.5°C excess above norms—and zonal upper-air steering of mild Atlantic air masses into European Russia underpin the positioning, contrasting early April climatological averages of 9–11°C. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS align on above-normal warmth with low precipitation risk. Realistic challenges include unforecasted showers or thickened cloud cover capping peaks below 11°C, though synoptic stability limits this; Roshydromet's hourly station observations, including VVC and Balchug, will confirm the peak by resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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