Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 41.5% implied probability for 7°C or below and 21% for 8°C as the leading outcomes, reflects the latest Roshydromet guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 5 around 5–10°C. This positioning stems from a sharp cooldown after a warm anomaly peaking at 18°C on April 2, driven by incoming northerly winds replacing high-pressure systems, alongside persistent cloud cover and light precipitation risks that cap daytime heating. Early April climatology averages 7–9°C highs at Vnukovo Airport (market resolution site), aligning with current model means amid 2–4°C positive anomalies. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to ensemble spread, with new 00Z ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight potentially refining land surface and boundary layer projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4月5日のモスクワの最高気温は？
4月5日のモスクワの最高気温は？
7℃以下 50%
8℃ 23%
9℃ 13%
10°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
7℃以下
43%
8℃
17%
9℃
13%
10°C
11%
11°C
11%
12℃
10%
13°C
4%
14℃
<1%
15℃
1%
16℃
1%
17℃以上
<1%
7℃以下 50%
8℃ 23%
9℃ 13%
10°C 11%
新規
新規
2026/04/05
7℃以下
$105 Vol.
43%
8℃
$73 Vol.
17%
9℃
$11 Vol.
13%
10°C
$20 Vol.
11%
11°C
$87 Vol.
11%
12℃
$196 Vol.
10%
13°C
$51 Vol.
4%
14℃
$707 Vol.
<1%
15℃
$735 Vol.
1%
16℃
$570 Vol.
1%
17℃以上
$298 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 41.5% implied probability for 7°C or below and 21% for 8°C as the leading outcomes, reflects the latest Roshydromet guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 5 around 5–10°C. This positioning stems from a sharp cooldown after a warm anomaly peaking at 18°C on April 2, driven by incoming northerly winds replacing high-pressure systems, alongside persistent cloud cover and light precipitation risks that cap daytime heating. Early April climatology averages 7–9°C highs at Vnukovo Airport (market resolution site), aligning with current model means amid 2–4°C positive anomalies. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to ensemble spread, with new 00Z ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight potentially refining land surface and boundary layer projections.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
音量
$2,854終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 41.5% implied probability for 7°C or below and 21% for 8°C as the leading outcomes, reflects the latest Roshydromet guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 5 around 5–10°C. This positioning stems from a sharp cooldown after a warm anomaly peaking at 18°C on April 2, driven by incoming northerly winds replacing high-pressure systems, alongside persistent cloud cover and light precipitation risks that cap daytime heating. Early April climatology averages 7–9°C highs at Vnukovo Airport (market resolution site), aligning with current model means amid 2–4°C positive anomalies. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to ensemble spread, with new 00Z ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight potentially refining land surface and boundary layer projections.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$2,854終了日
2026/04/05マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, with 41.5% implied probability for 7°C or below and 21% for 8°C as the leading outcomes, reflects the latest Roshydromet guidance and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting Moscow's highest temperature on April 5 around 5–10°C. This positioning stems from a sharp cooldown after a warm anomaly peaking at 18°C on April 2, driven by incoming northerly winds replacing high-pressure systems, alongside persistent cloud cover and light precipitation risks that cap daytime heating. Early April climatology averages 7–9°C highs at Vnukovo Airport (market resolution site), aligning with current model means amid 2–4°C positive anomalies. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists due to ensemble spread, with new 00Z ECMWF and GFS runs expected overnight potentially refining land surface and boundary layer projections.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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