Latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and national IMGW guidance show Warsaw's high temperature on April 12 clustering tightly around 13-15°C at Chopin Airport station, driving trader consensus with 14°C at 40% implied probability edging out 15°C or higher at 34%. Overnight clear skies chilled surface temperatures to 2°C late April 11, setting a cool start, while persistent overcast conditions and easterly winds up to 22 km/h limit daytime insolation and convective mixing, capping potential warming. Ensemble spread reflects uncertainty in cloud breaks and subtle warm air advection; 13°C at 22.5% accounts for thicker cloud decks in cooler GFS runs. Real-time observations through afternoon will clarify resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 12?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 12?
14°C 41%
15°C or higher 35%
13°C 23%
12°C 4.8%
$31,942 Vol.
$31,942 Vol.
2026/04/12
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
5%
13°C
23%
14°C
41%
15°C or higher
35%
14°C 41%
15°C or higher 35%
13°C 23%
12°C 4.8%
$31,942 Vol.
$31,942 Vol.
2026/04/12
5°C or below
$1,702 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$1,547 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,945 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$2,050 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$4,011 Vol.
1%
11°C
$3,811 Vol.
1%
12°C
$5,683 Vol.
5%
13°C
$2,734 Vol.
23%
14°C
$3,065 Vol.
41%
15°C or higher
$3,886 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and national IMGW guidance show Warsaw's high temperature on April 12 clustering tightly around 13-15°C at Chopin Airport station, driving trader consensus with 14°C at 40% implied probability edging out 15°C or higher at 34%. Overnight clear skies chilled surface temperatures to 2°C late April 11, setting a cool start, while persistent overcast conditions and easterly winds up to 22 km/h limit daytime insolation and convective mixing, capping potential warming. Ensemble spread reflects uncertainty in cloud breaks and subtle warm air advection; 13°C at 22.5% accounts for thicker cloud decks in cooler GFS runs. Real-time observations through afternoon will clarify resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
音量
$31,942終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and national IMGW guidance show Warsaw's high temperature on April 12 clustering tightly around 13-15°C at Chopin Airport station, driving trader consensus with 14°C at 40% implied probability edging out 15°C or higher at 34%. Overnight clear skies chilled surface temperatures to 2°C late April 11, setting a cool start, while persistent overcast conditions and easterly winds up to 22 km/h limit daytime insolation and convective mixing, capping potential warming. Ensemble spread reflects uncertainty in cloud breaks and subtle warm air advection; 13°C at 22.5% accounts for thicker cloud decks in cooler GFS runs. Real-time observations through afternoon will clarify resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$31,942終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETLatest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and national IMGW guidance show Warsaw's high temperature on April 12 clustering tightly around 13-15°C at Chopin Airport station, driving trader consensus with 14°C at 40% implied probability edging out 15°C or higher at 34%. Overnight clear skies chilled surface temperatures to 2°C late April 11, setting a cool start, while persistent overcast conditions and easterly winds up to 22 km/h limit daytime insolation and convective mixing, capping potential warming. Ensemble spread reflects uncertainty in cloud breaks and subtle warm air advection; 13°C at 22.5% accounts for thicker cloud decks in cooler GFS runs. Real-time observations through afternoon will clarify resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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