Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 2?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 2?
14°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$87,397 Vol.
$87,397 Vol.
2026/04/02
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$87,397 Vol.
$87,397 Vol.
2026/04/02
6°C or below
$6,790 Vol.
No
7°C
$1,803 Vol.
No
8°C
$4,100 Vol.
No
9°C
$3,437 Vol.
No
10°C
$3,187 Vol.
No
11°C
$3,838 Vol.
No
12°C
$8,268 Vol.
No
13°C
$23,004 Vol.
No
14°C
$10,591 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$10,672 Vol.
No
16°C or higher
$11,707 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
音量
$87,397終了日
2026/04/02マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$87,397終了日
2026/04/02マーケット開始日
Mar 29, 2026, 2:22 PM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in at 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of 14°C in Warsaw on April 2, driven by official observations from the Warsaw Chopin Airport station, Poland's primary meteorological reference point managed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Intraday METAR reports confirmed peak readings around 13–14°C under a weak high-pressure ridge, aligning with ECMWF and GFS ensemble means that clustered near 13°C despite earlier spreads of 11–16°C due to variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. This positioning reflects typical early-April continental conditions, with climatological highs averaging 13–14°C. Realistic challenges would require a rare post hoc data revision from IMGW, though validated observations rarely shift after daily close.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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