Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4월 15일 샌프란시스코에서 가장 높은 기온을 기록하셨나요?
4월 15일 샌프란시스코에서 가장 높은 기온을 기록하셨나요?
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F 이하 <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$61,980 거래량
$61,980 거래량
2026.04.15
47°F 이하
아니오
48-49°F
아니오
50-51°F
아니오
52-53°F
아니오
54-55°F
아니오
56-57°F
아니오
58-59°F
아니오
60-61°F
아니오
62-63°F
예
64-65°F
아니오
66°F 이상
아니오
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F 이하 <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$61,980 거래량
$61,980 거래량
2026.04.15
47°F 이하
$1,764 거래량
아니오
48-49°F
$2,686 거래량
아니오
50-51°F
$2,912 거래량
아니오
52-53°F
$3,850 거래량
아니오
54-55°F
$4,361 거래량
아니오
56-57°F
$6,776 거래량
아니오
58-59°F
$6,800 거래량
아니오
60-61°F
$10,098 거래량
아니오
62-63°F
$8,143 거래량
예
64-65°F
$7,643 거래량
아니오
66°F 이상
$6,947 거래량
아니오
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
거래량
$61,980종료일
2026.04.15마켓 개설일
Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ET결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$61,980종료일
2026.04.15마켓 개설일
Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ET결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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