Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 17, with 24°C leading at 27% implied probability amid a cluster around 22–24°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration guidance showing sunny conditions and a projected peak of 24–26°C following cooler, rainy weather on April 16 (high near 20°C). Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS and ECMWF differing by 1–2°C on peak afternoon heating under clear southwesterly flows, boundary layer mixing, and Beijing's urban heat island effect boosting maxima slightly above rural models. Recent observations of light rain suppressing today's highs reinforce caution, while tomorrow's insolation favors upper-20s potential; final National Weather Service updates expected within 24 hours could shift odds further. Historical mid-April averages hover at 20°C, contextualizing the warming trend.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Beijing on April 17?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 17?
24°C 27%
23°C 26%
22°C 23%
25°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
21°C or below
5%
22°C
23%
23°C
26%
24°C
27%
25°C
18%
26°C
7%
27°C
3%
28°C
2%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
24°C 27%
23°C 26%
22°C 23%
25°C 18%
最新
最新
2026-04-17
21°C or below
$709 交易量
5%
22°C
$546 交易量
23%
23°C
$269 交易量
26%
24°C
$369 交易量
27%
25°C
$495 交易量
18%
26°C
$1,395 交易量
7%
27°C
$756 交易量
3%
28°C
$1,619 交易量
2%
29°C
$940 交易量
<1%
30°C
$951 交易量
<1%
31°C or higher
$742 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 17, with 24°C leading at 27% implied probability amid a cluster around 22–24°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration guidance showing sunny conditions and a projected peak of 24–26°C following cooler, rainy weather on April 16 (high near 20°C). Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS and ECMWF differing by 1–2°C on peak afternoon heating under clear southwesterly flows, boundary layer mixing, and Beijing's urban heat island effect boosting maxima slightly above rural models. Recent observations of light rain suppressing today's highs reinforce caution, while tomorrow's insolation favors upper-20s potential; final National Weather Service updates expected within 24 hours could shift odds further. Historical mid-April averages hover at 20°C, contextualizing the warming trend.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Apr 15, 2026, 1:26 AM ET
交易量
$8,612結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 1:26 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 17, with 24°C leading at 27% implied probability amid a cluster around 22–24°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration guidance showing sunny conditions and a projected peak of 24–26°C following cooler, rainy weather on April 16 (high near 20°C). Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS and ECMWF differing by 1–2°C on peak afternoon heating under clear southwesterly flows, boundary layer mixing, and Beijing's urban heat island effect boosting maxima slightly above rural models. Recent observations of light rain suppressing today's highs reinforce caution, while tomorrow's insolation favors upper-20s potential; final National Weather Service updates expected within 24 hours could shift odds further. Historical mid-April averages hover at 20°C, contextualizing the warming trend.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$8,612結束日期
2026-04-17市場開放時間
Apr 15, 2026, 1:26 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Beijing's highest temperature on April 17, with 24°C leading at 27% implied probability amid a cluster around 22–24°C, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration guidance showing sunny conditions and a projected peak of 24–26°C following cooler, rainy weather on April 16 (high near 20°C). Differentiating factors include model ensemble spreads—GFS and ECMWF differing by 1–2°C on peak afternoon heating under clear southwesterly flows, boundary layer mixing, and Beijing's urban heat island effect boosting maxima slightly above rural models. Recent observations of light rain suppressing today's highs reinforce caution, while tomorrow's insolation favors upper-20s potential; final National Weather Service updates expected within 24 hours could shift odds further. Historical mid-April averages hover at 20°C, contextualizing the warming trend.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions