Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing over a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and other contenders. The Manhattan-based seat, long held by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and consistent historical results. Traders’ consensus around Lasher at 97.5% aligns with the district’s structural profile and Lasher’s endorsements from party leaders and outside support. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee, faces steep barriers in this environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts of this composition ahead of the November general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$32,897 交易量
$32,897 交易量
2026-11-02
Micah Lasher（民主黨）
98%
Caroline Shinkle（共和黨）
<1%
$32,897 交易量
$32,897 交易量
2026-11-02
Micah Lasher（民主黨）
$17,262 交易量
98%
Caroline Shinkle（共和黨）
$15,635 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing over a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and other contenders. The Manhattan-based seat, long held by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and consistent historical results. Traders’ consensus around Lasher at 97.5% aligns with the district’s structural profile and Lasher’s endorsements from party leaders and outside support. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee, faces steep barriers in this environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts of this composition ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$32,897結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing over a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and other contenders. The Manhattan-based seat, long held by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and consistent historical results. Traders’ consensus around Lasher at 97.5% aligns with the district’s structural profile and Lasher’s endorsements from party leaders and outside support. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee, faces steep barriers in this environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts of this composition ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,897結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETMicah Lasher secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 12th Congressional District in the June 2026 primary, prevailing over a crowded field that included fellow Assemblymember Alex Bores and other contenders. The Manhattan-based seat, long held by retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler, carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in registration advantages exceeding six-to-one and consistent historical results. Traders’ consensus around Lasher at 97.5% aligns with the district’s structural profile and Lasher’s endorsements from party leaders and outside support. Caroline Shinkle, the Republican nominee, faces steep barriers in this environment. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or sharp national swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts of this composition ahead of the November general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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