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今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？

Market icon

今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？

少于400万平方公里 52%

400-420万平方公里 15.2%

440万-460万平方公里 11.9%

420万-440万平方公里 11.8%

Polymarket

$31,023 交易量

少于400万平方公里 52%

400-420万平方公里 15.2%

440万-460万平方公里 11.9%

420万-440万平方公里 11.8%

Polymarket

$31,023 交易量

少于400万平方公里

$23,866 交易量

52%

400-420万平方公里

$2,456 交易量

15%

420万-440万平方公里

$786 交易量

12%

440万-460万平方公里

$935 交易量

12%

460万-480万平方公里

$1,670 交易量

11%

480万-500万平方公里

$605 交易量

3%

500万平方公里以上

$705 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 as the smallest in the 48-year satellite record per NSIDC—has propelled trader consensus toward a below-4 million square kilometer summer minimum, with <4m sq km at 52% implied probability. This thin ice pack, combined with record-low March volume and an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral transitioning to 61% El Niño odds for May-July per NOAA CPC, heightens melt potential via warmer atmospheric patterns and reduced refreezing. Long-term decline at 12% per decade reinforces positioning, though model ensembles show uncertainty; SIPN Phase 1 outlooks due in May will refine forecasts using spring melt observations.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$31,023
结束日期
2026-10-01
市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The record-low Arctic winter sea ice maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, 2026—tying 2025 as the smallest in the 48-year satellite record per NSIDC—has propelled trader consensus toward a below-4 million square kilometer summer minimum, with <4m sq km at 52% implied probability. This thin ice pack, combined with record-low March volume and an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral transitioning to 61% El Niño odds for May-July per NOAA CPC, heightens melt potential via warmer atmospheric patterns and reduced refreezing. Long-term decline at 12% per decade reinforces positioning, though model ensembles show uncertainty; SIPN Phase 1 outlooks due in May will refine forecasts using spring melt observations.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$31,023
结束日期
2026-10-01
市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"少于400万平方公里"，概率为 52%，其次是"400-420万平方公里"，概率为 15%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 52¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 52%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？"已产生 $31K 的总交易量（自Nov 20, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？"的当前领先者是"少于400万平方公里"，概率为 52%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 52%。紧随其后的结果是"400-420万平方公里"，概率为 15%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。