Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 24°C high in Madrid at 45.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 23°C (27.5%) and 25°C (20.5%), driven by the latest AEMET forecast projecting a 23°C maximum amid a stable high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, calm winds, and zero precipitation chance. This setup maximizes solar insolation and minimizes advective cooling, enabling peak afternoon heating around 2-4 p.m. local time, though urban heat island effects and minor model divergences—such as ECMWF versus GFS runs—introduce uncertainty tipping outcomes between 23-25°C. Recent observations show April 14 maxima near 22°C, continuing the mild warming trend; real-time AEMET updates and hourly measurements today will sharpen resolution as the market nears close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Madrid on April 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 15?
24°C 45%
23°C 28%
25°C 23%
26°C 2.9%
最新
$35,580 交易量
最新
$35,580 交易量
2026-04-15
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
28%
24°C
45%
25°C
23%
26°C
3%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
1%
24°C 45%
23°C 28%
25°C 23%
26°C 2.9%
最新
$35,580 交易量
最新
$35,580 交易量
2026-04-15
18°C or below
$3,236 交易量
<1%
19°C
$2,313 交易量
1%
20°C
$1,607 交易量
<1%
21°C
$5,471 交易量
<1%
22°C
$7,495 交易量
3%
23°C
$2,396 交易量
28%
24°C
$2,651 交易量
45%
25°C
$2,362 交易量
23%
26°C
$3,787 交易量
3%
27°C
$1,686 交易量
1%
28°C or higher
$2,576 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 24°C high in Madrid at 45.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 23°C (27.5%) and 25°C (20.5%), driven by the latest AEMET forecast projecting a 23°C maximum amid a stable high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, calm winds, and zero precipitation chance. This setup maximizes solar insolation and minimizes advective cooling, enabling peak afternoon heating around 2-4 p.m. local time, though urban heat island effects and minor model divergences—such as ECMWF versus GFS runs—introduce uncertainty tipping outcomes between 23-25°C. Recent observations show April 14 maxima near 22°C, continuing the mild warming trend; real-time AEMET updates and hourly measurements today will sharpen resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ET
交易量
$35,580结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a 24°C high in Madrid at 45.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 23°C (27.5%) and 25°C (20.5%), driven by the latest AEMET forecast projecting a 23°C maximum amid a stable high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, calm winds, and zero precipitation chance. This setup maximizes solar insolation and minimizes advective cooling, enabling peak afternoon heating around 2-4 p.m. local time, though urban heat island effects and minor model divergences—such as ECMWF versus GFS runs—introduce uncertainty tipping outcomes between 23-25°C. Recent observations show April 14 maxima near 22°C, continuing the mild warming trend; real-time AEMET updates and hourly measurements today will sharpen resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$35,580结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:26 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket favors a 24°C high in Madrid at 45.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 23°C (27.5%) and 25°C (20.5%), driven by the latest AEMET forecast projecting a 23°C maximum amid a stable high-pressure ridge delivering clear skies, calm winds, and zero precipitation chance. This setup maximizes solar insolation and minimizes advective cooling, enabling peak afternoon heating around 2-4 p.m. local time, though urban heat island effects and minor model divergences—such as ECMWF versus GFS runs—introduce uncertainty tipping outcomes between 23-25°C. Recent observations show April 14 maxima near 22°C, continuing the mild warming trend; real-time AEMET updates and hourly measurements today will sharpen resolution as the market nears close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题