Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
20°C 32%
19°C 18%
21°C 17%
22°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-04-16
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
3%
18°C
5%
19°C
18%
20°C
32%
21°C
17%
22°C
15%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
10%
20°C 32%
19°C 18%
21°C 17%
22°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-04-16
14°C or below
$551 交易量
1%
15°C
$537 交易量
1%
16°C
$474 交易量
<1%
17°C
$1,083 交易量
3%
18°C
$388 交易量
5%
19°C
$530 交易量
18%
20°C
$281 交易量
32%
21°C
$209 交易量
17%
22°C
$215 交易量
15%
23°C
$224 交易量
13%
24°C or higher
$603 交易量
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
交易量
$5,022结束日期
2026-04-16市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$5,022结束日期
2026-04-16市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket places a 33% implied probability on a 20°C high temperature in Tokyo on April 16, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) short-range forecasts showing partly cloudy conditions and highs clustering around 19–21°C amid mild southerly flows. Recent observations reveal above-normal early April warmth, including a 27°C peak on April 11 under high pressure, but cooling frontal influences over the past 48 hours have tempered expectations, boosting odds for 19°C and 21°C at 18.5% each. Key variables include cloud cover variability, urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, and sea breeze timing, which could push outcomes toward 22°C+ (14.5% combined) or cooler 18°C (5%). JMA updates expected hourly through resolution heighten near-term uncertainty in this precise measurement market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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