Minnesota's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar's reelection bid, following her 2024 victory and decision against a Senate run, reinforces trader expectations of a Democratic hold, with the August 11 Democratic primary drawing multiple challengers but unlikely to alter the general election outcome. Limited Republican infrastructure and candidate recruitment in the Minneapolis-centered district further contribute to the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Potential shifts could stem from an unusually divisive primary producing a weakened nominee, major turnout swings among key voting blocs, or unforeseen late-cycle events, though historical patterns and structural factors make such changes improbable ahead of the November 2026 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$41,011 交易量
$41,011 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
3%
$41,011 交易量
$41,011 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$17,009 交易量
94%
共和党
$24,002 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar's reelection bid, following her 2024 victory and decision against a Senate run, reinforces trader expectations of a Democratic hold, with the August 11 Democratic primary drawing multiple challengers but unlikely to alter the general election outcome. Limited Republican infrastructure and candidate recruitment in the Minneapolis-centered district further contribute to the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Potential shifts could stem from an unusually divisive primary producing a weakened nominee, major turnout swings among key voting blocs, or unforeseen late-cycle events, though historical patterns and structural factors make such changes improbable ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$41,011结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar's reelection bid, following her 2024 victory and decision against a Senate run, reinforces trader expectations of a Democratic hold, with the August 11 Democratic primary drawing multiple challengers but unlikely to alter the general election outcome. Limited Republican infrastructure and candidate recruitment in the Minneapolis-centered district further contribute to the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Potential shifts could stem from an unusually divisive primary producing a weakened nominee, major turnout swings among key voting blocs, or unforeseen late-cycle events, though historical patterns and structural factors make such changes improbable ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$41,011结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its D+32 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic nominees in recent cycles. Incumbent Ilhan Omar's reelection bid, following her 2024 victory and decision against a Senate run, reinforces trader expectations of a Democratic hold, with the August 11 Democratic primary drawing multiple challengers but unlikely to alter the general election outcome. Limited Republican infrastructure and candidate recruitment in the Minneapolis-centered district further contribute to the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Potential shifts could stem from an unusually divisive primary producing a weakened nominee, major turnout swings among key voting blocs, or unforeseen late-cycle events, though historical patterns and structural factors make such changes improbable ahead of the November 2026 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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