Traders assign the highest implied probability (34.5%) to a 24°C maximum in Mexico City on August 7, followed closely by 23°C (26%) and 25°C (18%), reflecting consensus around the long-term seasonal average for this subtropical highland location at roughly 2,240 meters elevation. August falls in the rainy season, when frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover typically cap daytime heating despite intense solar insolation, while variable steering patterns and moisture influx from the Pacific or Gulf can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Official guidance from agencies like Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional shows model runs converging near 23–24°C, with minor spread arising from differences in simulated precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Historical data indicate such narrow ranges are common, underscoring the sensitivity of daily maxima to short-term atmospheric variability ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 7?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 7?
24°C 34%
23°C 26%
25°C 18%
22°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
9%
23°C
26%
24°C
34%
25°C
18%
26°C
7%
27°C or higher
1%
24°C 34%
23°C 26%
25°C 18%
22°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 7, 2026
17°C or below
$481 Vol.
1%
18°C
$174 Vol.
1%
19°C
$10 Vol.
2%
20°C
$21 Vol.
3%
21°C
$115 Vol.
4%
22°C
$258 Vol.
9%
23°C
$98 Vol.
26%
24°C
$113 Vol.
34%
25°C
$363 Vol.
18%
26°C
$438 Vol.
7%
27°C or higher
$131 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (34.5%) to a 24°C maximum in Mexico City on August 7, followed closely by 23°C (26%) and 25°C (18%), reflecting consensus around the long-term seasonal average for this subtropical highland location at roughly 2,240 meters elevation. August falls in the rainy season, when frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover typically cap daytime heating despite intense solar insolation, while variable steering patterns and moisture influx from the Pacific or Gulf can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Official guidance from agencies like Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional shows model runs converging near 23–24°C, with minor spread arising from differences in simulated precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Historical data indicate such narrow ranges are common, underscoring the sensitivity of daily maxima to short-term atmospheric variability ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,203End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (34.5%) to a 24°C maximum in Mexico City on August 7, followed closely by 23°C (26%) and 25°C (18%), reflecting consensus around the long-term seasonal average for this subtropical highland location at roughly 2,240 meters elevation. August falls in the rainy season, when frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover typically cap daytime heating despite intense solar insolation, while variable steering patterns and moisture influx from the Pacific or Gulf can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Official guidance from agencies like Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional shows model runs converging near 23–24°C, with minor spread arising from differences in simulated precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Historical data indicate such narrow ranges are common, underscoring the sensitivity of daily maxima to short-term atmospheric variability ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,203End Date
Aug 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability (34.5%) to a 24°C maximum in Mexico City on August 7, followed closely by 23°C (26%) and 25°C (18%), reflecting consensus around the long-term seasonal average for this subtropical highland location at roughly 2,240 meters elevation. August falls in the rainy season, when frequent afternoon convection and cloud cover typically cap daytime heating despite intense solar insolation, while variable steering patterns and moisture influx from the Pacific or Gulf can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Official guidance from agencies like Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional shows model runs converging near 23–24°C, with minor spread arising from differences in simulated precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture. Historical data indicate such narrow ranges are common, underscoring the sensitivity of daily maxima to short-term atmospheric variability ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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