Traders see the 36°C and 37°C outcomes nearly tied because ensemble forecast guidance from global and regional models shows only modest differences in peak surface heating for Qingdao on August 6. A ridge promoting subsidence and reduced cloud cover supports daytime maxima several degrees above the 29–31°C climatological average, yet coastal sea-breeze advection and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in exact values. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and high-resolution model runs expected overnight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the daily maximum observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on August 6?
36°C 37%
37°C 37%
38°C or higher 17%
35°C 12%
$12,646 Vol.
$12,646 Vol.
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
12%
36°C
37%
37°C
37%
38°C or higher
17%
36°C 37%
37°C 37%
38°C or higher 17%
35°C 12%
$12,646 Vol.
$12,646 Vol.
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
2%
35°C
12%
36°C
37%
37°C
37%
38°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/qingdao/ZSQDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 36°C and 37°C outcomes nearly tied because ensemble forecast guidance from global and regional models shows only modest differences in peak surface heating for Qingdao on August 6. A ridge promoting subsidence and reduced cloud cover supports daytime maxima several degrees above the 29–31°C climatological average, yet coastal sea-breeze advection and boundary-layer moisture introduce uncertainty in exact values. Official China Meteorological Administration updates and high-resolution model runs expected overnight will likely tighten the distribution ahead of the daily maximum observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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