Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding position in the California 21st Congressional District general election due to his long tenure, strong fundraising edge exceeding $1.3 million, and the district’s Democratic lean following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Costa advanced comfortably with over 42 percent while Republican Kyle Kirkland secured second place at roughly 26 percent amid a split GOP field. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the incumbent’s structural advantages and limited recent shifts in voter sentiment. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in the current cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,331 Vol.
$27,331 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジム・コスタ（民主党）
94%
カイル・カークランド（共和党）
7%
$27,331 Vol.
$27,331 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジム・コスタ（民主党）
$15,163 Vol.
94%
カイル・カークランド（共和党）
$12,168 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding position in the California 21st Congressional District general election due to his long tenure, strong fundraising edge exceeding $1.3 million, and the district’s Democratic lean following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Costa advanced comfortably with over 42 percent while Republican Kyle Kirkland secured second place at roughly 26 percent amid a split GOP field. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the incumbent’s structural advantages and limited recent shifts in voter sentiment. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$27,331終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding position in the California 21st Congressional District general election due to his long tenure, strong fundraising edge exceeding $1.3 million, and the district’s Democratic lean following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Costa advanced comfortably with over 42 percent while Republican Kyle Kirkland secured second place at roughly 26 percent amid a split GOP field. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the incumbent’s structural advantages and limited recent shifts in voter sentiment. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$27,331終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding position in the California 21st Congressional District general election due to his long tenure, strong fundraising edge exceeding $1.3 million, and the district’s Democratic lean following 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Costa advanced comfortably with over 42 percent while Republican Kyle Kirkland secured second place at roughly 26 percent amid a split GOP field. Nonpartisan analysts rate the seat Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the incumbent’s structural advantages and limited recent shifts in voter sentiment. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though no such developments have emerged in the current cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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