Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a strong 90.5% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature reaching 80°F or higher on April 15, driven by the National Weather Service forecast of a high near 84°F under partly cloudy skies with south winds at 5-15 mph. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm southerly flow across Central Texas, with recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showing tight agreement on highs in the low-to-mid 80s amid low precipitation odds. Mid-April climatology supports this, with average highs near 81°F and minimal historical deviations under similar synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective development or a stalled frontal boundary increasing cloud cover and suppressing peaks to the upper 70s, though current guidance shows low confidence in such shifts ahead of evening forecast updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Austin on April 15?
Highest temperature in Austin on April 15?
80°F or higher 92%
78-79°F 5.9%
76-77°F 2.1%
74-75°F <1%
$28,993 Vol.
$28,993 Vol.
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
6%
80°F or higher
92%
80°F or higher 92%
78-79°F 5.9%
76-77°F 2.1%
74-75°F <1%
$28,993 Vol.
$28,993 Vol.
61°F or below
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
6%
80°F or higher
92%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Apr 13, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a strong 90.5% implied probability for Austin's highest temperature reaching 80°F or higher on April 15, driven by the National Weather Service forecast of a high near 84°F under partly cloudy skies with south winds at 5-15 mph. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm southerly flow across Central Texas, with recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF showing tight agreement on highs in the low-to-mid 80s amid low precipitation odds. Mid-April climatology supports this, with average highs near 81°F and minimal historical deviations under similar synoptic patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected convective development or a stalled frontal boundary increasing cloud cover and suppressing peaks to the upper 70s, though current guidance shows low confidence in such shifts ahead of evening forecast updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問