Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 15°C (65% implied probability) in Tokyo on April 15, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast issued April 14, which anticipates mild spring conditions with above-normal overnight lows amid persistent high-pressure influence over the Kanto region. Recent observational data shows April 2026 trending warmer than the daily normal minimum of 9.9°C, supported by ensemble model outputs from sources like timeanddate.com projecting lows near 13–15°C under overcast skies and late showers (up to 89% precipitation chance). Factors like cloud cover insulation and light winds (3 mph) reduce radiative cooling, while historical April analogs confirm such mild minima during cherry blossom season. JMA hourly updates overnight will provide final clarity ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日4月15日の東京の最低気温は?
4月15日の東京の最低気温は?
15℃ 59.0%
13°C 15.7%
12℃ 3.9%
11°C <1%
$51,542 Vol.
$51,542 Vol.
10℃以下
<1%
11°C
1%
12℃
4%
13°C
16%
14℃
46%
15℃
59%
16℃
<1%
15℃ 59.0%
13°C 15.7%
12℃ 3.9%
11°C <1%
$51,542 Vol.
$51,542 Vol.
10℃以下
<1%
11°C
1%
12℃
4%
13°C
16%
14℃
46%
15℃
59%
16℃
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Apr 13, 2026, 8:18 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors a lowest temperature of 15°C (65% implied probability) in Tokyo on April 15, reflecting the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast issued April 14, which anticipates mild spring conditions with above-normal overnight lows amid persistent high-pressure influence over the Kanto region. Recent observational data shows April 2026 trending warmer than the daily normal minimum of 9.9°C, supported by ensemble model outputs from sources like timeanddate.com projecting lows near 13–15°C under overcast skies and late showers (up to 89% precipitation chance). Factors like cloud cover insulation and light winds (3 mph) reduce radiative cooling, while historical April analogs confirm such mild minima during cherry blossom season. JMA hourly updates overnight will provide final clarity ahead of resolution based on official Tokyo station measurements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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