Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul's highest temperature on April 12 hovering near 12-13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds from the north, explaining the razor-thin trader split with 44.5% implied probability for 13°C and 39.5% for 12°C. A recent mild air mass shift following colder snaps earlier in the week—such as April 10's observed low teens—has boosted these outcomes, but uncertainty persists due to variable cloud cover reducing insolation, sea breeze influences from the Marmara Sea, and urban heat island effects in central districts versus airport readings. Model ensembles diverge slightly on peak afternoon heating around 2-4 PM local time, with resolution hinging on official MGM observations by midnight; watch for mid-day updates as real-time data refines the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 12?
13°C 44%
12°C 39%
11°C 12.2%
14°C 4%
$20,039 Vol.
$20,039 Vol.
2026/04/12
8°C
1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
12%
12°C
40%
13°C
44%
14°C
4%
15°C
2%
16°C or higher
3%
13°C 44%
12°C 39%
11°C 12.2%
14°C 4%
$20,039 Vol.
$20,039 Vol.
2026/04/12
8°C
$1,253 Vol.
1%
9°C
$1,135 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,826 Vol.
2%
11°C
$1,742 Vol.
12%
12°C
$1,309 Vol.
40%
13°C
$1,016 Vol.
44%
14°C
$1,802 Vol.
4%
15°C
$3,668 Vol.
2%
16°C or higher
$3,174 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul's highest temperature on April 12 hovering near 12-13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds from the north, explaining the razor-thin trader split with 44.5% implied probability for 13°C and 39.5% for 12°C. A recent mild air mass shift following colder snaps earlier in the week—such as April 10's observed low teens—has boosted these outcomes, but uncertainty persists due to variable cloud cover reducing insolation, sea breeze influences from the Marmara Sea, and urban heat island effects in central districts versus airport readings. Model ensembles diverge slightly on peak afternoon heating around 2-4 PM local time, with resolution hinging on official MGM observations by midnight; watch for mid-day updates as real-time data refines the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 8, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
音量
$20,039終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul's highest temperature on April 12 hovering near 12-13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds from the north, explaining the razor-thin trader split with 44.5% implied probability for 13°C and 39.5% for 12°C. A recent mild air mass shift following colder snaps earlier in the week—such as April 10's observed low teens—has boosted these outcomes, but uncertainty persists due to variable cloud cover reducing insolation, sea breeze influences from the Marmara Sea, and urban heat island effects in central districts versus airport readings. Model ensembles diverge slightly on peak afternoon heating around 2-4 PM local time, with resolution hinging on official MGM observations by midnight; watch for mid-day updates as real-time data refines the outlook.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$20,039終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Apr 8, 2026, 12:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and global models like ECMWF and GFS show Istanbul's highest temperature on April 12 hovering near 12-13°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds from the north, explaining the razor-thin trader split with 44.5% implied probability for 13°C and 39.5% for 12°C. A recent mild air mass shift following colder snaps earlier in the week—such as April 10's observed low teens—has boosted these outcomes, but uncertainty persists due to variable cloud cover reducing insolation, sea breeze influences from the Marmara Sea, and urban heat island effects in central districts versus airport readings. Model ensembles diverge slightly on peak afternoon heating around 2-4 PM local time, with resolution hinging on official MGM observations by midnight; watch for mid-day updates as real-time data refines the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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