Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in New York's 25th congressional district, a Rochester-area seat with a D+10 Partisan Voter Index and Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Morelle's consistent reelection margins, including 60.8% in 2024, combined with strong fundraising and the absence of a competitive Republican challenger in Virginia McIntyre, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. The upcoming June 23 Democratic primary against Sherita Traywick and Robin Wilt introduces limited uncertainty, but Morelle's incumbency and institutional support make an upset improbable. A Democratic general election victory on November 3 remains the baseline outcome absent late developments such as a major scandal or unforeseen national political shift that could alter turnout or candidate viability in this safely blue district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,090 Vol.
$25,090 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$25,090 Vol.
$25,090 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,992 Vol.
94%
共和党
$10,098 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in New York's 25th congressional district, a Rochester-area seat with a D+10 Partisan Voter Index and Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Morelle's consistent reelection margins, including 60.8% in 2024, combined with strong fundraising and the absence of a competitive Republican challenger in Virginia McIntyre, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. The upcoming June 23 Democratic primary against Sherita Traywick and Robin Wilt introduces limited uncertainty, but Morelle's incumbency and institutional support make an upset improbable. A Democratic general election victory on November 3 remains the baseline outcome absent late developments such as a major scandal or unforeseen national political shift that could alter turnout or candidate viability in this safely blue district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$25,090終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in New York's 25th congressional district, a Rochester-area seat with a D+10 Partisan Voter Index and Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Morelle's consistent reelection margins, including 60.8% in 2024, combined with strong fundraising and the absence of a competitive Republican challenger in Virginia McIntyre, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. The upcoming June 23 Democratic primary against Sherita Traywick and Robin Wilt introduces limited uncertainty, but Morelle's incumbency and institutional support make an upset improbable. A Democratic general election victory on November 3 remains the baseline outcome absent late developments such as a major scandal or unforeseen national political shift that could alter turnout or candidate viability in this safely blue district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,090終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle holds a commanding position in New York's 25th congressional district, a Rochester-area seat with a D+10 Partisan Voter Index and Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Morelle's consistent reelection margins, including 60.8% in 2024, combined with strong fundraising and the absence of a competitive Republican challenger in Virginia McIntyre, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. The upcoming June 23 Democratic primary against Sherita Traywick and Robin Wilt introduces limited uncertainty, but Morelle's incumbency and institutional support make an upset improbable. A Democratic general election victory on November 3 remains the baseline outcome absent late developments such as a major scandal or unforeseen national political shift that could alter turnout or candidate viability in this safely blue district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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