Trader sentiment clusters around 20°C (28%) and 21°C (19%) for Wellington's highest temperature on March 27, driven by MetService's latest ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime max of 20-21°C under a high-pressure ridge tempered by southerly winds. Historical March climatology at Wellington Airport averages 20.1°C highs, aligning with this range, while current GFS and ECMWF model runs show low spread (19-22°C) due to stable stratiform cloud cover limiting extremes. Lower odds for 24°C+ reflect minimal convective heating potential in late summer, and cooler tails (≤18°C) are discounted amid warming sea surface temperatures; traders await the midday model update for resolution-defining precision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on March 27?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 27?
20°C 27%
19°C 19%
21°C 19%
22°C 16%
15°C or below
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
9%
18°C
11%
19°C
12%
20°C
27%
21°C
19%
22°C
16%
23°C
11%
24°C
11%
25°C or higher
2%
20°C 27%
19°C 19%
21°C 19%
22°C 16%
15°C or below
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
9%
18°C
11%
19°C
12%
20°C
27%
21°C
19%
22°C
16%
23°C
11%
24°C
11%
25°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around 20°C (28%) and 21°C (19%) for Wellington's highest temperature on March 27, driven by MetService's latest ensemble forecasts projecting a daytime max of 20-21°C under a high-pressure ridge tempered by southerly winds. Historical March climatology at Wellington Airport averages 20.1°C highs, aligning with this range, while current GFS and ECMWF model runs show low spread (19-22°C) due to stable stratiform cloud cover limiting extremes. Lower odds for 24°C+ reflect minimal convective heating potential in late summer, and cooler tails (≤18°C) are discounted amid warming sea surface temperatures; traders await the midday model update for resolution-defining precision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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